MLB Picks: Yankees vs. Red Sox 7/28/19

by | Jul 28, 2019 | mlb

New York Yankees (66-38) vs. Boston Red Sox (59-47), 7/28/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, July 28
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: Domingo German (12-2, 4.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs. Chris Sale (5-9, 4.00, 1.08)

Moneyline: Red Sox -180/Yankees +165 (BetNow)
Over/Under: 10

After taking the first three games of this four-game AL East rivalry series the Red Sox shoot for the sweep of the Yankees Sunday night at Fenway Park. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Boston and Sale at around -165 over New York and German, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -180 and dipped that total to 10.

The Sox could also be found “getting” around +100 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Yanks vs. Sox Set-Up

Boston took the opener of this series Thursday night 19-3, then won Friday 10-5, then won Saturday’s game 9-5. So the Red Sox have outscored the Yankees 38-13 in this series so far.

Also, all three games in the series played over totals of 11, 11.5 and 11.5. Crazy days, indeed.

Saturday’s win was the third in a row for the Sox, part of a current 5-1 run.

Saturday’s loss was the third in a row for the Yanks, part of a current 2-5 skid.


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At 66-38 overall the Yankees now lead the AL East by eight games over 59-47 Boston.

New York is also now tied with Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, are now tied with Oakland for the No. 2 spot in the AL wild-card race.

The Yanks still lead the season series with the Sox six games to four.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Sale, by our stringent standards, is 11/21 on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Tuesday he held Tampa Bay to two runs and four hits, with ten strikeouts, through six innings of a 5-4 Boston victory. And in his previous outing, he held Toronto scoreless on two hits through six innings, with 12 strikeouts, in a 5-0 Red Sox win.

Boston is only 8-13 with Sale this season but 2-0 over his last two starts.

Over two starts already this year against New York Sale allowed eight runs and 14 hits through 11 innings. The Sox lost both those games.

German is 7/16 on quality starts this year and three for his last four. Tuesday he got bombed by Minnesota for eight runs and nine hits, including three home runs, through just 3 2/3 innings, although the Yankees came from behind to win that game 14-12 in extra innings. But over his three starts previous to that he allowed just three runs and 12 hits through 18 innings.

New York is 13-3 with German this year, 4-0 over his last four starts.

In his only start of this season against Boston German allowed three runs and six hits through 3 2/3 innings of a game the Yankees eventually won 5-3.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .252/.326/.433 against left-handed pitching this season. Also, this lineup is already down a couple of regulars and may now be without DJ LeMahieu (.332), who left Saturday’s game with a groin injury.

Boston is batting .283/.356/.482 against RH pitching this season, which helps this lineup rank in the top two in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.89 ERA this season and a 1.31 WHIP while allowing a .712 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top five bullpens in Baseball.

The Red Sox pen owns a 4.56 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .754 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 57-43 in Yankees games this season.
  • Overs are 62-41 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 32-20 in games played at Fenway Park this season.
  • Overs are 6-4 in Yanks-Sox games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 21-14 with Sale and German this season.

Free MLB Pick

These teams are heading in different directions over the last week or so, and that means a lot to us when handicapping baseball games, making Boston the selection here. However, that price is a bit much, so we’ll take a gamble and play the Red Sox against the run line for our free MLB pick for Sunday.

Take the Red Sox on the Run Line

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