New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Analysis & Pick 8/2/20
New York Mets (3-6) at Atlanta Braves (6-3)
When: 1:10 p.m., Sunday, August 2
Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta
Starting Pitchers: David Peterson (1-0, 3.18 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) vs. Kyle Wright (0-1, 16.88 ERA, 2.63 WHIP)
Moneyline: NYM -106/ATL -104 (SportsBetting.ag - GREAT live betting platform!)
Runline: Mets -1.5/Braves +1.5
In baseball, the first month of the season usually isn’t a time to worry. But this year, there’s only two months of the season, so if the Mets don’t turn things around quickly, the season could be over before it begins. New York has now lost four in a row after seemingly breaking out of its early slump, and once again, the culprit is the same thing it’s always been: an inability to hold the lead and an inability to hit Braves pitching.
In five games against Atlanta — half of their total against the Braves for the year — the Mets have a total of 16 runs to their name. That doesn’t sound that bad until you consider that 10 of those runs came in Friday’s game, and Atlanta has held the Mets to one run on three separate occasions. Even worse? The Mets actually lost the game where they scored ten runs because Atlanta managed 11 by taking advantage of New York’s beleaguered bullpen.
They now hand the ball to David Peterson, who looked pretty solid in his one outing this season, holding the Red Sox to two earned runs in just under six innings of work. That marked Peterson’s first start of his major-league career, and so far, he appears to be more of a contact pitcher than a strikeout pitcher, as he managed just three strikeouts against the Red Sox. That could be a tad problematic against the Braves, who tend to get themselves out by striking out as opposed to putouts. Atlanta leads baseball in both strikeouts and doubles, and against a pitcher who doesn’t seem to have strikeout stuff, the Braves could be apt to put up substantial numbers at the dish.
None of the Wright Stuff
Kyle Wright’s first trip to the mound in 2020 was every bit as disastrous as Atlanta United’s run in the MLS tournament. His first two innings went just fine, but then Tampa Bay unloaded on Wright and tagged him for five runs in the third inning, chasing him from the game and handing the Braves a defeat. Since that game, however, Atlanta hasn’t lost, winning two each against the Rays and the Mets.
Wright gets another chance here as the Braves continue to try to fill out the rest of the rotation, which has so far resembled the Braves’ rotation of the 1940s when the team’s strategy was “(Warren) Spahn, (Johnny) Sain and pray for rain.” For the modern-day Braves, it’s been Mike Soroka and Max Fried, and little else. The Braves have managed to hold opponents to just nine runs when their two pocket aces have pitched, but otherwise, Atlanta has given up five or more runs on three occasions out of their other five games.
The good news for the Braves is that they seem to have finally figured out what they’re doing at the plate. Ronald Acuna Jr. hit his first home run on Saturday, and Atlanta has scored seven or more runs in three of its past four games. In the one game where they weren’t scoring, they really didn’t need to hit well because Fried was dominant on the mound.
Wright doesn’t have to be dominant, but he does have to be serviceable. All the Braves need him to do is get the game to the seventh inning with Atlanta within a run of New York. If he does that, the Braves will have several chances to win the game off the Mets’ bullpen.
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By the time these teams see each other again, the NL East race could be all but locked up. These teams won’t meet again until a three-game set in September, which means that the Mets have to treat this game as critical to their chances in the NL East. Two teams in the division will qualify for the eight-team NL postseason, but the Mets don’t want to start falling too far behind the Braves this early in the season. Losing here would leave New York four games behind Atlanta with 1/6 of the season already in the books and no guarantee that the Mets would be able to make it up because they might not get all 10 of the games against the infected Marlins. In other words, the pressure is on.
- The Braves have won four straight against the Mets.
- The over is 3-0 in the Braves’ past three games following a game where the under hit.
- The under has hit in six of the Mets’ nine games this season.
- The Mets are 0-3 this season as an underdog.
- The over is 6-2-1 in the teams’ past nine meetings in Atlanta.
- The Mets have lost five of their past six at SunTrust Park.
It should be a comfortable day in normally steamy Atlanta, with temperatures hovering around 75 degrees at the first pitch.
The Mets have been hitting better as of late, but thanks to their struggles with the bullpen, you really wouldn’t know it because they haven’t been getting wins. To me, this looks like it could be a high offensive showcase that sees both teams put up a solid amount of runs and get deep into the opponent’s bullpen. Where are you betting your MLB games? Bet this week’s matchups for FREE by taking advantage of a killer 100% real cash bonus at MyBookie! See our MyBookie review for all the reasons they’re worth having as an out!