MLB Picks: Red Sox vs. Yankees 8/2/20

by | Aug 2, 2020 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (3-6) vs. New York Yankees (6-1), 8/2/20

Time: 7:08 pm ET Sunday, Aug. 2

Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY

TV: ESPN

Listed Pitchers: James Paxton (0-1, 27.00) vs. Austin Brice (0-0, 7.71)

Moneyline: Yankees -200/Red Sox +180 (MyBookie - 100% Bonus up to $300 FREE!)

Over/Under: 10

After taking the first two games of this AL East rivalry series, the Yankees shoot for the sweep of the Red Sox Sunday night in the Bronx. The Bombers are off to a 6-1 start to this abbreviated season, hitting long balls and getting good pitching. Boston, on the other hand, is struggling. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Paxton at around -200 over Boston and Brice, with an over/under of 10 runs. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Set-Up

New York grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 5-1, winning as a -175 favorite on the MLB betting line and covering against the run line at a price of +100. The Yanks then won Saturday’s game 5-2, cashing at -190 and covering the run line at -110.

Aaron Judge hit a home run for the fourth straight game Saturday, and Gio Urshela hit one for the second straight game, this one a grand slam in the second inning, providing New York with all the offense it would need.

The Yanks then got 6 1/3 innings of scoreless relief pitching to secure the W.

Also, both games in this series have played under their totals.

At 6-1, New York owns the best record in the Major Leagues.

At 3-6, Boston sits in last place in the AL East and looks like it misses Mookie Betts.

Last year the Yankees took the season series from the Red Sox 14 games to five.

On a personnel note, New York is still playing without closer Aroldis Chapman, although it hasn’t mattered too much so far.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Paxton is trying to bounce back after a bad outing in his season debut last Saturday in which he allowed three runs and five hits through just 1-plus innings of work in a 9-2 New York loss to Washington.

Last year Paxton only hit 13/29 on quality starts, but the Yanks played 21-8 with him.

Over four starts against the Red Sox, last season Paxton allowed nine runs and 17 hits through 24 2/3 innings, with 34 strikeouts against seven walks. New York won three of those four games.

Right-hander Brice is making his fifth appearance of this season and his first start for his new team, possibly in an “opener” role. So far, he’s allowed four earned runs and five hits, including two homers, through 4 2/3 innings. Most recently, Brice threw one scoreless inning Friday night, with one strikeout.

Last year, pitching for Miami, Brice posted a 3.43 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP through 44 2/4 innings of relief work, with 46 whiffs against 18 walks.

In his only previous career appearance against the Yankees, back in 2017 while with Cincinnati, Brice got two outs out of three batters.

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Sunday’s Batting Splits

New York batted .265 last year against right-handed pitching, with a .336 team OBP and a .484 team slugging percentage. This year the Yanks have already hit 14 home runs.

Boston batted .259/.327/.457 last year against left-handed pitching. But the Sox lost a key RH stick over the off-season with their trade of Betts to the Dodgers.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Boston played 46-35 on the road last year,
  • New York played 57-24 at home last year.
  • Boston played 24-30 against left-handed starters last season.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters last year.
  • New York played 32-11 when favored by -200 or more last year, and it’s 2-0 this year.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 6-2 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Unders are 4-3 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders played 44-35 in games played at Yankee Stadium last season.
  • Overs played 10-9 in Sox-Yanks games last year.
  • Overs played 19-9 in Paxton’s starts last season.

Free MLB Pick

Paxton struggled in his season debut, but he was tough (for the most part) against the Sox last year. We also give New York our handicapping check-marks in the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison, even without Chapman. And we like taking chances. So we’ll give the 1.5 runs and play the Yanks against the run line at a price of around -115.