New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Total Pick 9/19/23
Date: Tuesday, September 19th, 6:40 ET
Location: loanDepot Park
TV: BSFL
Money Line: Mets +140/Marlins -166
Total Line: 8
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Miami Marlins and the Mets on Tuesday, September 19th at loanDepot Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | +140 | +1.5 | O 8 (-112) |
| MIA | -166 | -1.5 | U 8 (-109) |
Mets vs. Marlins Projected Lineup
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1 | CF |
| Francisco Alvarez | 2 | C |
| Pete Alonso | 3 | 1B |
| Francisco Lindor | 4 | SS |
| Mark Vientos | 5 | DH |
| Jeff McNeil | 6 | RF |
| Ronny Mauricio | 7 | 2B |
| Brett Baty | 8 | 3B |
| Tim Locastro | 9 | LF |
| Joey Lucchesi | – | SP |
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 1 | 2B |
| Jorge Soler | 2 | RF |
| Josh Bell | 3 | DH |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 4 | LF |
| Jake Burger | 5 | 3B |
| Yuli Gurriel | 6 | 1B |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 7 | CF |
| Jon Berti | 8 | SS |
| Nick Fortes | 9 | C |
| Braxton Garrett | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
New York Mets: 70-80 SU / OU 61-80 / Runline 64-86
On a record of 70-80, the Mets are 4th in the NL East. Currently, they are 26 games out of the division lead. Against the Marlins, they will be seeking their 3rd straight win. On the road, they have a record of 31-44 while going 39-36 at home. New York’s overall series record is 16-26-6.
- The Mets have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of -0.1.
- The Mets have been favored in 59.3% of their games and have runline records of 35-40 and 29-46 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Mets have an over/under record of just 61-80.
So far this season, the Marlins have an overall record of 78-73, putting them 3rd in the NL East. Currently, they are 18.5 games out in the division. Across their last ten games, they are an even 5-5. On the road, they have gone 35-40 and 43-33 at home. The team’s series record is 24-22-2.
- The Marlins have covered the runline in 46.4% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.3
- The Marlins have been favored in 45.7% of their games and have runline records of 33-43 and 37-38 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Marlins have an over/under record of just 70-78.
Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Lucchesi | 7 | 7 | 35 | 3-0 | 2.83 | 1.26 | 4 |
Joey Lucchesi gets the start for New York and has picked up a win in two straight games. He comes into the matchup carrying an ERA of 2.83 and record Lucchesi. His season-long strikeout total sits at 24, with a batting average allowed .237. Lucchesi’s slugging percentage allowed currently sits at .382 coming on a WHIP of 1.26.
The last time Joey Lucchesi took to the mound, he secured a quality start and a win for his team, who won by a final score of 7-1 against the Diamondbacks. Lucchesi gave up one run and five hits across seven innings.
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 29 | 28 | 149 | 9-6 | 3.67 | 1.16 | 18 |
For the season, Braxton Garrett has an ERA of 3.67 across 29 outings. Heading into the game, his overall record stands at 9-6. Against the Mets, he will look to extend his streak of not giving up a home-run to four games. So far, opponents have a SLG% of .411 against him and a batting average of .246.
A quality start and a win were added to Braxton Garrett’s record in his previous outing against the Brewers. The Marlins went on to win by a score of 2-0. Garrett allowed zero runs and four hits during six innings.
Mets vs. Marlins Offense Outlook
The Mets have played 151 games and are ranked 19th in the league with 4.4 runs per game. New York ranks 8th in home runs, having gone deep 197 times. Their average is .239, including .231 on the road and .231 at home.
New York Mets Top Hitters vs. Lefties
| Player | BA | HR | SLG | WOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | .276 | 3 | .391 | .318 |
| Francisco Lindor | .274 | 13 | .549 | .370 |
| Jeff McNeil | .277 | 0 | .333 | .316 |
| Pete Alonso | .227 | 12 | .553 | .369 |
| Starling Marte | .273 | 1 | .341 | .289 |
New York Mets Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff McNeil | .240 | 5 | 3 | 2 | .590 |
| Pete Alonso | .100 | 2 | 4 | 1 | .300 |
| Mark Vientos | .317 | 6 | 3 | 0 | .317 |
| Francisco Lindor | .217 | 3 | 4 | 0 | .217 |
| Ronny Mauricio | .287 | 5 | 1 | 0 | .287 |
The Marlins have played 153 games and are ranked 23rd in the league with 4.2 runs per game. Miami ranks 16th in home runs, having gone deep 157 times. Their average is .258, including .232 on the road and .267 at home.
Miami Marlins Top Hitters vs. Lefties
| Player | BA | HR | SLG | WOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | .333 | 2 | .426 | .337 |
| Josh Bell | .267 | 8 | .493 | .369 |
| Jon Berti | .318 | 2 | .427 | .337 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | .270 | 3 | .389 | .305 |
| Jake Burger | .254 | 11 | .602 | .383 |
Miami Marlins Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | .354 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .979 |
| Luis Arraez | .470 | 11 | 6 | 3 | .880 |
| Jake Burger | .460 | 10 | 5 | 2 | .860 |
| Garrett Hampson | .400 | 5 | 2 | 0 | .500 |
| Yuli Gurriel | .500 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .750 |
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