New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Analysis & Predictions

by | Aug 4, 2020 | mlb

New York Mets (4-7) vs. Washington Nationals (3-4), 8/4/20

Listed Pitchers: Patrick Corbin (0-0, 1.42) vs. Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18)

Time: 7:05 pm ET Tuesday, Aug. 4

Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Nationals -145/Mets +135 (5Dimes - Bet on games at discounted odds here!)

Over/Under: 9.5

NL East rivals clash when the Mets and Nationals begin a quick two-game series Tuesday night in DC. Neither team is playing great ball as of late; in fact, Washington hasn’t been playing any ball at all. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened Washington and Corbin at around -145 over New York and Matz, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Mets vs. Nationals Set-Up

New York just dropped three of four games in Atlanta over the weekend, avoiding the sweep by taking Monday’s series finale 7-2. The Mets scored four runs in the top of the third inning Monday and got a quality outing from Jake deGrom to win as -125 favorites on the MLB betting odds.

The victory halted a five-game losing skid for New York.

At 4-7 overall, the Mets trail the first-place Braves by three games in the NL East.

Meanwhile, Washington split four games with Toronto last week in DC, winning that series finale last Thursday 6-4. The Nationals then had their weekend series in Miami postponed due to positive virus tests on the Marlins. So Tuesday will be Washington’s first action in five days.

At 3-4, the Nationals trail Atlanta by two games in the NL East.

Last year New York took the season series from Washington 12 games to seven.

On the personnel front, New York 2B Robinson Cano (.412 this season) is listed as questionable for Tuesday with a sore groin. Over in the other dugout, Washington has been playing without OF Juan Soto (34 HR last year), after he tested positive for C-19 a few weeks back, but he could return to action Tuesday night.

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Tuesday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back in April of last season, a 6-5 Mets victory at Citi Field.

Lefty Corbin is 1/1 on quality starts this season. Two Sundays ago, he held the Yankees to one run and two hits through 6 1/3 innings, with eight strikeouts against zero walks. Unfortunately for him, the Nationals lost that game 3-2 thanks in part to their bullpen.

Last year Corbin hit an impressive 24/33 on quality starts; Washington played 21-12 when Corbin started.

Over four starts last season against the Mets Corbin allowed ten runs and 19 hits through 25 innings, with 35 whiffs against just six walks. Somehow the Nationals lost three of those four games.

Lefty Matz is one-for-two on quality starts this season. Last Thursday, he gave up three runs and eight hits, including a couple of dingers, through 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 loss to Boston. But five days before that, in his season debut, Matz held Atlanta to one run and two hits, with seven strikeouts, although the Mets eventually lost that game 5-3 in 10 innings.

Last year Matz hit 15/30 on quality starts; New York played 16-14 when Matz started.

Over two starts last year against Washington Matz allowed just one run and 12 hits through 11 innings, with 15 strikeouts against six walks. The Mets won both those games.

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Tuesday’s Batting Splits

New York batted .272 against left-handed pitching last season, with a .344 team OBP and a .455 team slugging percentage.

Washington batted .283/.356/.472 last year against left-handed pitching. But they also lost their best stick when 3B and RH slugger Anthony Rendon bailed for California over the off-season.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Mets played 40-41 on the road last season.
  • The Nats played 50-31 at home last season.
  • The Mets played 19-23 against left-handed starters last season.
  • The Nats played 24-17 against LH starters last season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 7-4 in Mets games this season.
  • Unders are 5-2 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs played 41-35 in games played at Nationals Park last season.
  • Unders played 17-14 in Corbin’s starts last year.
  • Unders played 14-11 when Matz started last year.
  • Overs played 12-3 in Mets-Nationals games last season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll give Washington a slight edge in the pitching match-up, but that Nats bullpen still scares us. Also, Washington misses Rendon. Meanwhile, Matz was pretty good against the Nationals last year. We’re going with the Mets at the underdog price for our free MLB pick for Tuesday. Boost your betting bankroll by taking advantage of a limited time 100% bonus up to $250 FREE at BetNow!