New York Yankees at Washington Nationals Pick 7/25/20

by | Jul 25, 2020 | mlb

New York Yankees (1-0) at Washington Nationals (0-1), 7/25/20

Listed Pitchers: Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 last year) vs. James Paxton (15-6, 3.82)

Time: 7:15 pm ET Saturday, July 25

Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC

TV: Fox

Moneyline: Yankees -125/Nationals +115 (BetNow - Credit cards work there! 50% Real Cash Bonus!)

Over/Under: 8.5

After taking the season opener Thursday night in DC, and following a day off, the Yankees shoot for the series victory over the World Series champion Nationals Saturday night. New York beat Max Scherzer as a short favorite Thursday and plays the favorite again Saturday against Stephen Strasburg. Can the Yanks pull the tough two-fer? And how are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB’s betting odds for this game opened the Yanks and Paxton at around -120 over the Nats and Strasburg, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped New York about a nickel, to around -125, and the total a full run to 8.5.

Yankees vs. Nationals Set-Up

New York opened this abridged 2020 MLB season with a 4-1 victory over Washington Thursday night, a game itself abridged to five innings thanks to some really wet weather.

New York got an early two-run homer from Giancarlo Stanton and five breezy innings from its latest, greatest big-money acquisition, Gerrit Cole, who allowed just a solo homer and one walk, with five whiffs.

Washington, going against Cole and without the departed Anthony Rendon, managed just one hit on the evening, a solo homer from Adam Eaton. New Nationals Starlin Castro, Eric Thames and Asdrubal Cabrera, signed over the off-season to make up for the loss of Rendon, combined to go 0-4 at the plate, with a walk.

New York won as a -145 betting favorite Thursday night, and was on its way toward covering against the run line, too. Unfortunately, most baseball bet-takers cancel run-line bets when games are called before 8.5 innings.

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Also, Thursday’s game played over its five-inning total, which was 3.5, but the full total on the game was also canceled.

The Yankees face a wins over/under of 37.5 for this season, highest in the American League. Washington, meanwhile, is playing against a wins over/under of 33.5 for this season, the third-highest total in the National League.

These teams met most recently back in 2018 when they split four games. And all four of those games played under the totals, as those contests trended low-scoring.

On the personnel front Washington OF Juan Soto missed Thursday’s game after testing positive for C-19. Also, IF Howie Kendrick was questionable for Thursday but served as DH for the Nats, going 0-2 with a strikeout.

Over in the other dugout New York 2B DJ LeMahieu and closer Aroldis Chapman also sat out Thursday, waiting for the go-ahead after testing positive a couple weeks ago.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Strasburg hit for 22/33 on quality starts last season. He then went 5/5 during Washington’s run through the playoffs, allowing eight earned and 28 hits through 33 1/3 innings. He also threw three scoreless inning of relief in the Nationals’ wild-card victory over Milwaukee.

Washington played 21-12 when Strasburg started last season, then 5-0 in the playoffs.

Washington was also 4-2 last year when Strasburg was lined as an underdog on the MLB betting line, then 4-0 in the playoffs!

This will be Strasburg’s first-ever start against the Yankees.

Lefty Paxton hit 13/29 on quality starts last year. He then went 1/3 in the playoffs, allowing five runs and 13 hits through 13 innings, before New York got eliminated by Houston in the ALCS.

The Yankees played 21-8 in Paxton’s starts last year, then 2-1 in the playoffs.

This will be Paxton’s first-ever start against Washington.

Yanks-Nats Batting Splits

New York batted .265 last year against right-handed pitching, with a .336 team OBP and a .484 team slugging percentage.

Washington batted .283/.356/.472 last year against left-handed pitching. However, 3B and right-handed stick Anthony Rendon played a big part in producing those numbers, and he’s no longer with the Nationals.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen posted a 4.08 ERA last season and a 1.32 WHIP, while allowing a .729 OPS. But as mentioned above this unit could be without fireballer Chapman for the start of this season.

The Nationals bullpen posted a ML-worst 5.66 ERA last season and a 1.48 WHIP, while allowing an .800 OPS. And while the Washington pen almost can’t help but improve this season, to what degree is uncertain.

Totals Report

Overs played 84-72 in Yankees games last season.

Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games last season.

Overs played 41-35 in games played at Nationals Park last season.

Overs played 16-15 in Strasburg’s starts last season.

Overs played 19-9 in Paxton’s starts last season.

MLB Yankees-Nationals Betting Trends

  • New York played 46-35 on the road last year.
  • Washington played 50-31 at home last year.
  • New York played 70-41 against right-handed starters last year.
  • Washington played 69-52 against RH starters last year.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll give Strasburg the check mark in the pitching match-up but New York owns edges with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, even without Chapman. Plus, the Nats lost Rendon and it looks like they’ll be without Soto. So we like the Yankees here.

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