New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins Pick 7/24/19

by | Jul 24, 2019 | mlb

New York Yankees (65-35) vs. Minnesota Twins (61-39), 7/24/19 Time: 8:10 pm ET Wednesday, July 24 Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN Listed Pitchers: JA Happ (8-5, 4.86 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) vs. Jake Odorizzi (11-4, 3.18, 1.13) TV: ESPN, WPIX, FS North

Moneyline: Twins -110/Yankees +100 (GtBets) Over/Under: 10.5

After splitting the first two games of this three-game series, including a crazy game Tuesday night, the Yankees and Twins meet for a rubber match Wednesday night in Minneapolis. Who do we like here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened this game at right around a pick ’em, with an over/under of 10.5 runs. Early betting action then moved Minnesota into a -110 favorite.

Yankees vs. Twins Set-Up

Minnesota took the opener of this series Monday night 8-6, but New York won a wild one Tuesday night 14-12 in 10 innings. The Twins won as +105 home dogs Monday against CC Sabathia while the Yankees cashed as -110 favorites Tuesday.

Also, the first two games in this series both played over their totals.

With Tuesday’s win New York is 6-2 over its last eight games. At 65-35 overall the Yankees now lead the AL East by ten games over both Boston and Tampa Bay, and they’re a game and a half up on Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

Meanwhile, with Tuesday’s loss, Minnesota is 3-6 over its last nine games. At 61-39 overall the Twins now lead the AL Central by just three games over second-place Cleveland, and they now trail the Astros by 2.5 games in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming AL playoffs.

New York now leads this season series with Minnesota three games to two.

Wednesday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on May 4 at Yankee Stadium, a 7-3 Twins win.

Odorizzi is only 6/19 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last six. Last Friday he gave up three runs and six hits through five innings of a 5-3 Minnesota loss to Oakland. And over his last six starts, he’s allowed 20 earned runs and 32 hits, including eight homers, through 28 2/3 innings.

The Twins are 13-6 with Odorizzi this season, but only 2-3 over his last five starts.

Over his last three starts against New York, two last year and one earlier this season, Odorizzi allowed six runs on eight hits and ten walks through 18 innings. Minnesota won two of those three games.

Southpaw Happ, by our strict standards, is only 4/19 on quality starts this season and also 0 for his last six. But some of that is due to a short leash. Last Friday he held Colorado to two runs on eight hits through five innings of an 8-2 Yankees victory. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed five runs and 16 hits through 15 2/3 innings.

New York is 13-6 with Happ this season, 2-1 over his last three starts.

Over his last two starts against Minnesota, on last year and one earlier this season, Happ allowed four runs and 13 hits through 11 2/3 innings. The Yanks split those two games.

Wednesday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .274/.349/.482 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the top three in the Majors in this split. The Yankees have also scored 62 runs over their last eight games.

Minnesota is batting .290/.353/.520 against LH pitching this season, which ranks this lineup No. 1 in the Majors in this split. The Twins have also scored 27 runs over their last three games.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.72 ERA this season and a 1.29 WHIP while allowing a .696 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

The Twins pen owns a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .759 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 53-43 in Yankees games this season.
  • Overs are 49-45 in Twins games this season.
  • Unders are 26-23 in games played at Target Field this season.
  • Overs are 4-1 in Yanks-Twins games this season.

Free MLB Pick

New York is the hotter team right now, Happ is the better starting pitcher as of late, and the Yankees own the better bullpen. Plus, New York’s getting a short underdog price. We’re going with the Yankees in this spot.

Take the NY Yankees +100