Orioles vs. Red Sox Runline Bet

by | Last updated May 30, 2022 | mlb

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Monday, May 30th, 07:10 ET

Location: Fenway Park


Money Line: Orioles +140 / Red Sox -155 (BetNow – Get a 100% bonus up to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM)

Total Line: 10.0


Baltimore: Tyler Wells (1-4, 4.3)
Boston: Tanner Houck (3-3, 4.04)

Orioles Projected Lineup

Ramon Urias 3B
Chris Owings 2B
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Anthony Santander LF
Adley Rutschman C
Jorge Mateo SS
Austin Hays RF
Cedric Mullins CF
Trey Mancini 1B
Tyler Wells P

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Franchy Cordero 1B
Christian Vázquez C
Alex Verdugo LF
Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
Trevor Story 2B
Rafael Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Enrique Hernández CF
Tanner Houck P


Baltimore Orioles: 20-29-0 SU / OU 19-29-1 / Run Line W/L 28-21-0
Boston Red Sox: 23-25-0 SU / OU 20-25-3 / Run Line W/L 26-22-0

The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles on Monday, May 30th at Fenway Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Boston as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 10.0.

Recent Form

The Orioles will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Boston by the score of 12-2. Baltimore’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 15 hits, leading to 12 runs. Offensively, they finished with just 2 runs on 7 hits. The loss came as Baltimore was the betting underdog, getting 165.0 on the moneyline. With the OU line set at 9.5 runs, the Orioles and Boston combined to go over this total. Games involving the Orioles have stayed below the over-under line more than half of the time, at 19-29-1.

Over the Orioles’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -8. Despite their below .500 record, in Baltimore’s last 5 games, they are averaging just 4.2. Their season-long average currently sits at 3.67 (26th. Baltimore’s overall series record is just 6-7-2.

In their last game, the Boston Red Sox picked up a 10-run win over the Orioles by a score of 12-2. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Orioles to 2 runs and 7 hits. Offensively, they finished with 12 runs on 15 hits. In the game, Boston was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -185.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 27 games, winning at a rate of 52.0%. The Red Sox and Orioles went over the run total line set at 9.5 runs. So far, Boston has an over-under record of just 20-25-3.

Across their last 5 contests, the Red Sox are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +15. Overall, the Red Sox are averaging 4.88 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 8.6 runs per contest. Boston has a below .500 series record of just 5-7-3.


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Pitching Matchup

Baltimore will roll with Tyler Wells (1-4) as their starter. So far, Wells has put together an ERA of 4.3. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.13 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.264. Home runs have been an issue for Wells, as he is allowing an average of 1.21 per 9 innings pitched. Wells is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 2.77 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 16.0%. Throughout the season, Wells has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.43 per contest.

The Boston Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the mound with an overall record of 3-3. So far, Houck has put together an ERA of 4.04. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 3.2 innings. Houck comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.23. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Houck, as he is allowing just 0.51 per 9 innings. Houck is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 2.90 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 22.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.79 walks per contest.

Baltimore vs Boston History

Today’s matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox will be their 7th meeting of the season. So far, Baltimore is leading the season series, 4-3. Through 7th games, the series’ over-under record is 3-4, with the average run total sitting at 10.11 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.57 runs. Boston won last year’s head-to-head series grabbing 13 wins to 6. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-11. Last year, the Orioles and Red Sox averaged 10.11 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.63 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore’s last 10 games when playing Boston
  • Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
  • Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore
  • Boston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Prediction

In Monday’s matchup between Baltimore and Boston, I see the Red Sox picking up another decisive win. Although Tanner Houck has primarily been used out of the bullpen, he has given up just 1 run over his past 4 outings. On the other side, Tyler Wells has made it out of the 5th inning just once this season. I like Boston on the runline.

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