Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium
Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite over Tampa Bay with a total of 39.5. My play is the Under.
The line movement here is dramatic and worth examining carefully. This game opened with a total of 46.5. It has moved down all the way to 39.5 — a full 7-point drop. That’s one of the biggest total moves you’ll see in a single week, and it’s directly tied to Baker Mayfield’s injury. The Buccaneers’ starting quarterback is out, and their backup gets the start on Sunday. That’s a significant offensive downgrade for a Bucs team that was already struggling to produce points consistently.
Tampa Bay’s offensive metrics have been troubling even with Mayfield. They’re averaging 20.7 points per game. Their red-zone efficiency is 30% (3-for-10) — one of the worst rates in the NFL. They’ve allowed 13 sacks through three games, meaning their offensive line has been unable to protect the quarterback. Whichever backup takes over on Sunday, that backup faces the same offensive line issues that Mayfield did, plus the additional challenge of learning on the fly against an NFL defense.
Realistically, the Buccaneers are looking at 10-14 points in this game. That’s the actual production ceiling of a backup-QB-led Bucs offense with the same offensive line and red-zone problems Mayfield faced. Even that number is optimistic given how limited their offense has been through three games.
Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been much better. The Packers scored just 14 points in a 35-14 home loss to Atlanta on Thursday Night Football last week. Jordan Love has been inconsistent, the offensive line has struggled with protection, and the team has struggled to sustain drives against real defenses. Realistic Packers scoring output against a solid Bucs defense: 20-24 points.
That gives us a combined range of 30-38 points. Well under 39.5.
The prediction models support this. Dimers projects a final score of Packers 21, Buccaneers 17 — total of 38 points. That’s under the 39.5 line. FanDuel’s model has the Packers winning 60% of simulations but keeps the total low. Sportsbettingdime specifically backs the Under 39.5 based on both teams’ offensive limitations.
The Packers’ own recent history of games going Over/Under is mixed. But given both teams’ offensive struggles and the specific Mayfield injury impact, this specific matchup is set up for a low-scoring outcome. The market has already priced this in significantly with the 7-point total drop, but 39.5 is still a defensible Under given the game script we’re expecting.
Neither team is set up for offensive explosions. Both have offensive line issues, both have inconsistent quarterback play, and both have red-zone execution problems. That combination produces games with limited possessions, more punts than touchdowns, and totals well under expected numbers.
Realistic outcomes: Packers 21, Bucs 17 (38 total); Packers 24, Bucs 14 (38 total); Packers 20, Bucs 13 (33 total); or Packers 24, Bucs 20 (44 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 39.5. Only if both offenses find rhythm against inferior defenses does the total push over, and neither team has shown that ability.
The Pick: Packers/Buccaneers Under 39.5
