Padres vs. Cubs Runline Bet 6/16/22

by | Last updated Jun 16, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
Date: Thursday, June 16th, 02:20 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Money Line: Padres -200 / Cubs +165 (Best Bonus)
Total Line: 10.5


San Diego: Joe Musgrove (7-0, 1.5)
Chicago: Matt Swarmer (1-1, 4.24)

Padres Projected Lineup

Nomar Mazara RF
Austin Nola C
Eric Hosmer 1B
Ha-seong Kim SS
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 1B
Joe Musgrove P

Cubs Projected Lineup

Nico Hoerner SS
Jason Heyward RF
Patrick Wisdom 3B
Rafael Ortega RF
Nick Madrigal 2B
Willson Contreras C
Ian Happ LF
Frank Schwindel 1B
Christopher Morel CF
Matt Swarmer P


San Diego Padres: 40-24-0 SU / OU 29-33-2 / Run Line W/L 36-28-0
Chicago Cubs: 23-39-0 SU / OU 31-28-3 / Run Line W/L 31-31-0

The Chicago Cubs host the San Diego Padres on Thursday, June 16th at Wrigley Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-200), with an OU line set at 10.5.

Recent Form

In San Diego’s last game vs the Cubs, the Padres came away with a 19-5 win. The Cubs came up with 11 hits leading to 5 runs against San Diego’s pitchers. The Padres benefited from an offense that generated 19 runs on 21 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 124.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 12.0 runs. The Padres now have an over-under record of 29-33-2.

The Padres come into this game with a 3-2 record of their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +18. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 7.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.73. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 20 series played, going 12-5-3.

Chicago will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Padres by the score of 19-5. Chicago’s pitching staff gave up 21 hits, leading to 19 runs for the Padres. In the loss, the Cubs’ offense still came up with 11 hits and 5 runs. Chicago dropped the game despite being favored at -134.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 22 games, winning at a rate of 41.0%. The Cubs and Padres went over the run total line set at 12.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 31-28-3.

In their last 5 contests, the Cubs have just 0 wins, going 0-5. During this time, the team has a run differential of -46. If Chicago is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 3.0 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.26. Chicago has a below .500 series record of just 4-11-5.

Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send Joe Musgrove to the mound with an overall record of 7-0. In his previous outings, Musgrove has lasted an average of 6.55 innings, putting together an ERA of just 1.5. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.196. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.5 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Joe Musgrove has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. This includes a per game average of 6.55 K’s per game. Throughout the season, Musgrove has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.0 per contest.

Chicago will roll with Matt Swarmer (1-1) as their starter. To date, Swarmer has an ERA of 4.24 while lasting an average of 5.67 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.215 against Swarmer. Home runs have been a concern for Swarmer as he is allowing 4.76 per 9 innings. Up to this point, Swarmer has a strikeout percentage of just 22.0% and a per game average of 5.0. Throughout the season, Swarmer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.59 per contest.

San Diego vs Chicago History

Today’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs will be their 7th meeting of the season. San Diego has the lead in the series at 4-2. Through 6 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-2, with the average run total sitting at 8.0 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.5 runs. Chicago won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 5 wins to 1. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 1-4. Last year, the Padres and Cubs averaged 8.0 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.0 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs’s last 5 games when playing San Diego
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chi Cubs’s last 17 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s matchup between Chicago and San Diego, the Padres are the heavy favorites on the moneyline. Cubs starter Matt Swarmer kicked off his MLB career with some quality outings but was roughed up for 6 runs against the Yankees. Although I see him faring better vs San Diego, it won’t be enough, as Joe Musgrove has been excellent all year long. Look for the Padres to win and cover the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 Runline

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