Padres vs Marlins Odds, Trends, Predictions

by | Aug 15, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Date: Monday August 15th, 06:40 ET

Location: LoanDepot park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Padres -128 / Marlins +107 (BetNow - They’ll give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 if you go through our link and use bonus code PREDICTEM)

Total Line: 6.5

STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Joe Musgrove (8-5, 2.91)
Miami: Sandy Alcantara (10-5, 2.01)

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Trent Grisham CF
Brandon Drury 1B
Juan Soto RF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Manny Machado 3B
Jorge Alfaro C
Josh Bell 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Joe Musgrove P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Lewin Diaz 1B
Jacob Stallings C
Brian Anderson RF
Miguel Rojas SS
Joey Wendle SS
Peyton Burdick LF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
J.J. Bleday CF
Jon Berti 3B
Sandy Alcantara P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 65-52-0 SU / OU 54-59-4 / Run Line W/L 55-62-0
Miami Marlins: 50-65-0 SU / OU 49-59-7 / Run Line W/L 52-63-0

The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on Monday, August 15th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-128), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The San Diego Padres will look to pick up another big win after they defeated the Nationals by a score of 6-0. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 0 runs on 7 hits. The Padres lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 6 runs. In the matchup, San Diego was favored at -275.0 on the moneyline. Through 84 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 56.9%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. With this result, San Diego’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 54-59-4.

The Padres are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +19. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 7.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.48. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 36 series played, going 19-12-5.

Miami is coming off a 2 run loss to the Braves 3-1. For the game, the pitching staff held the Braves to 3 runs on 10 hits. At the plate, the Marlins only came through for 1 run on 5 hits. Leading into Miami’s loss they were the underdogs, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 58 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 28.9%. Combined, the Marlins and Braves run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 49-59-7.

The Marlins come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -7 over their last 5 games. If Miami is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.2 runs per game, compared to a season average of 3.74. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 10-22-5.

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Pitching Matchup

San Diego will roll with Joe Musgrove (8-5) as their starter. Currently, Musgrove has an ERA of just 2.91 while pitching an average of 6.35 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.216 against him. Musgrove is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.92 per 9 innings. Per game, Joe Musgrove is averaging 6.2, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.98 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Miami turns to starter Sandy Alcantara. For the year, he has a record of 10-5. Heading into the game, Alcantara has appeared in 23 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.01. On average, he pitches 7.22 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.198. This year Alcantara is allowing just 0.43 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Sandy Alcantara is averaging 6.3, on a strikeout percentage of 23.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.22 walks per outing.

San Diego vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will be their 5th meeting of the season. San Diego has the lead in the series at 3-1. Through 4 games, the series over-under record is 1-3, with the average run total sitting at 8.29 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.75 runs. Last season, San Diego picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Padres and Marlins averaged 8.29 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.43 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing Miami
  • Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
  • Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Monday’s National League matchup between San Diego and Miami, the Padres are the favorite on the moneyline. However, look for San Diego to struggle Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins. On the season, the right-hander has a WHIP of just .95 and hardly gives up the long ball. Look for the Marlins to come away with the win.

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