MLB Baseball Picks

Hudson’s zero home runs allowed across 32 innings is the kind of stat that hits differently against a Dodgers roster with 97 team home runs and a .441 slugging percentage. The Under is posted at +100 against a 9.5 total the model projects closer to 8.8 — even money on a number that looks inflated by two games of scoring noise. The angle is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is real, but the more glaring divide is at the top — Arrighetti’s 2.21 ERA and 38.4% curveball whiff rate against a Royals rotation stripped of Lugo, Ragans, and Bubic. The Astros are sitting at +102 on the moneyline while a model-implied fair price lands closer to -113. The side is inside.

Mize vs. Williams is a clearer mismatch than the 7.0 total implies — Mize’s 2.27 ERA and 0.965 WHIP over 47.2 innings represents a contact suppression profile the market hasn’t fully discounted. Cleveland’s lineup is now missing Ramirez, with DeLauter and Martinez also day-to-day, yet the under is still sitting at -104. The full read is inside.

Great American Ball Park’s 1.10 run factor changes the calculus on a starter getting squared up on his primary pitch — Gallen’s four-seamer is posting a .409 xwOBA against in a lineup with 87 home runs. Arizona still comes in at -112, essentially the same price as the team getting the better arm by WAR. See how this one plays out.

Peralta’s four-seamer carries a .325 xwOBA and only a 19.3% whiff rate — a real problem against Olson’s .478 xwOBA versus right-handers and Riley’s two home runs in 16 career plate appearances against him. The market has the 46-24 Braves priced as a +100 underdog while the Mets sit at -118 despite the clear starter gap. The breakdown is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two clubs carries real weight here — Seattle is missing Matt Brash and Cooper Criswell, compressing back-end options if Hancock exits before the seventh. The total is posted at 10 (Under -118) against a projected combined output closer to 9.1, and Mikolas’s 2.06 HR/9 rate does nothing to close that gap. The edge is explained inside.

Buehler vs. Rogers is a clearer mismatch than the Padres’ +108 moneyline implies. Rogers’ 6.15 ERA and -0.67 WAR are walking into a market that prices Baltimore as if the arms are close to even. The analysis is inside.

Meyer’s 29 walks in 79 innings generate the traffic that drives over arguments — but Pittsburgh’s lineup is missing Oneil Cruz (.822 OPS, 14 HRs) and faces one of the sharpest breaking-ball profiles in the NL. The total is set at 7 with -110 on both sides, flat pricing in a 0.96 park factor environment where both starters are operating at sub-3.00 ERA quality. The pick is inside.

Burrows’ four-seam fastball is generating a .435 xwOBA against — the primary reason he’s surrendered 17 home runs in just 73.1 innings — and Kansas City’s middle-order right-handers are built to exploit exactly that profile. The Royals are sitting at -126 on the moneyline despite a projected 67.5% win probability that implies fair odds closer to -204. The analysis is inside.

Soriano’s 2.31 WAR over 82 innings is the kind of sustained frontline production that doesn’t get built by accident — the matchup tonight is not close on the mound. The moneyline has the Angels sitting at -104, barely off a coin flip, while the pitching profiles point sharply in one direction. See how this one plays out.