MLB Baseball Picks

Peterson’s 3.73 BB/9 and Lowder’s 1.26 HR/9 represent two distinct failure modes that both point toward the same run environment. The over is priced at -101 against a Cubs bullpen missing seven relievers — a near-even price on what the models project as 9.7 combined runs. The pick is inside.

Skubal vs. Anderson is a clearer mismatch than the posted 7.5 total implies. The under is priced at -120 while Detroit’s projection assumes a lineup that no longer exists — three starting outfielders are out, and the 8.8 combined run expectation doesn’t fully account for that depth loss against a 0.95 WHIP starter. The analysis is inside.

Joe Jensen breaks down Friday’s Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos preseason Week 3 finale with a spread play on the Vikings getting a big number as road underdogs.

Citi Field’s 0.97 park factor leans pitcher-friendly — and that’s before Jacob Misiorowski (1.68 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) takes the ball against a Mets lineup stripped of Soto, Vientos, and Polanco. The total is posted at 7.0 with the under sitting at near even money (-103), a price that treats this like a balanced run environment when the matchup says otherwise. See how this one plays out.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is real, but the bigger separation lives in the rotation — Roupp’s recent 3.58 ERA over 32.2 innings versus Cabrera’s 5.60 ERA is not noise. The moneyline is sitting at -114 Diamondbacks and -106 Giants, treating a legitimate pitching mismatch like a 50/50 proposition. The full read is inside.

Sale’s 36.1% slider whiff rate and Yamamoto’s 35 walks in 151.2 innings form one of the stingiest starter combinations on the slate. The under at +104 is positive money on a matchup featuring two sub-2.70 ERA arms at a park with a 1.01 factor — the price hasn’t caught up to the talent on the mound. The breakdown is inside.

Wesneski vs. Cole is a clearer mismatch than the 8.0 total implies. The Under is sitting at -102 — near-even money on an ace-anchored game against an offense posting a -48 run differential over its last stretch. The edge is explained inside.

Hughes’ 6.54 ERA and lack of a consistent out-pitch put him at a structural disadvantage against a Nationals lineup carrying a .753 OPS and 186 home runs. The moneyline is sitting at Nationals -119 — near coin-flip pricing for a matchup where the starter profiles diverge more sharply than that. The pick is inside.

Sasaki vs. Smith-Shawver is a clearer mismatch than the Dodgers -124 moneyline implies. Smith-Shawver’s 6.23 ERA and .784 xwOBA on his sinker walk into an Ohtani-led order that punishes exactly that kind of contact — and the line hasn’t moved to reflect it. The edge is explained inside.

The bullpen gap between the Rockies and Nationals is grounded in real numbers — Washington’s staff carries a 4.66 ERA and 1.38 WHIP against Colorado’s 5.55 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, and with both starters likely gone early, that difference matters. The Nationals are priced at -124 on the moneyline, which is a modest surcharge for a team sitting at +18 on the season against one sitting at -144. The side is inside.