Brazoban’s 1.73 ERA is built on 26 innings — barely four starts worth of data against a Reds lineup posting an xwOBA of .490 from De La Cruz and .427 from Sal Stewart. The moneyline prices the Mets at -120 despite a -31 run differential, a 3-7 last-10 skid, and a lineup stripped of Lindor, Polanco, Robert, and Alvarez. The analysis is inside.









