MLB Picks

Citi Field amplifies Peralta’s edge over Lorenzen’s 7.48 ERA but the -232 moneyline overprices execution risk. The pick is inside.

Williams’ 2.12 ERA meets Scherzer’s 7.16 struggles, but the -131 line hasn’t moved far enough. The full read is inside.

Bello’s 1.93 WHIP meets Young’s perfect start at -122. Find out which way this one goes.

Abbott’s 1.74 WHIP meets Detroit’s patient offense while the moneyline treats this as even. The pick is inside.

Minnesota’s .704 team OPS dwarfs the Mets’ .622 mark against an unproven fourth-start pitcher. The pick is inside.

DeGrom’s dominance meets Chandler’s control problems — Rangers -1.5 at +129 underprices this gap. Find out which way this one goes.

Ashcraft’s zero home run rate through 22.2 innings meets a Rangers lineup that just hung five runs yesterday. The analysis is inside.

Webb’s sinker allows a .372 xwOBA while Glasnow’s knuckle curve generates a 50.0% whiff rate. The full read is inside.

Soroka’s strikeout advantage over Martin’s contact approach creates separation the -156 moneyline hasn’t fully absorbed. Find out which way this one goes.

Coors Field’s 1.38 park factor changes everything when Waldron’s 14.73 ERA meets Feltner’s home run problems. The pick is inside.

Sanchez vs Cabrera is a clearer mismatch than the moneyline at -126 implies. The Cubs are getting plus money at home despite outscoring opponents 58-20 during their eight-game winning streak. The full read is inside.

Sproat’s 6.88 ERA meets Skubal’s dominance, but -226 asks for certainty this matchup can’t provide. Find out which way this one goes.

Cavalli’s 12 walks in 19.2 innings spell trouble against Atlanta’s disciplined lineup. The analysis is inside.

Backhus’ sinker generates just a 16.1% whiff rate against Chicago’s hot offense. Find out which way this one goes.