New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets
Saturday, October 24, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Ball Arena, Denver
Denver is an 11.5-point favorite over New Orleans, with the total at 238. My play is the Nuggets -11.5 (-110).
Nikola Jokic went 5-for-19 on Thursday. Read that again, because it doesn’t happen often. The Nuggets lost their opener 96-84 in Oklahoma City, and now Jokic gets two days of rest, a home crowd and one of the league’s softer defenses. I expect Denver to fix things in a hurry.
Thursday was ugly, and it won’t last
Denver shot 37.8% from the field, its worst mark since the 2024 opener, and turned it over 22 times. Jamal Murray went 2-of-11. Aaron Gordon was about the only starter who looked like himself.
That came on the road against the team that had the league’s best defensive rating last season. Denver, meanwhile, had the NBA’s best offensive rating, per Basketball Reference. One rough night in Oklahoma City doesn’t erase that.
New Orleans is running on fumes
The Pelicans are 0-2, and both losses stung. They led Indiana by eight in the fourth quarter of the opener and lost 123-120. On Friday night they fell 120-119 in Salt Lake City. That’s two one-possession losses in three nights, and now they play a second straight night at altitude with no rest.
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They might also be without their starting center. Yves Missi left Friday’s game with a left knee injury. “It’s a left knee injury and we’re going to get a look at it tomorrow (Saturday) in Denver,” coach Jamahl Mosley said. If Missi sits, second-year big Derik Queen, who played 29 minutes on Friday, likely draws the Jokic assignment. That’s a brutal ask on tired legs.
The matchup tilts hard toward Denver
New Orleans ranked 25th in defensive rating and 28th in defensive rebounding rate last season. Those are exactly the cracks Jokic lives in. Denver won all three meetings last year, including a 122-88 rout at Ball Arena, and has won five straight home games against the Pelicans, according to the team’s game notes.
Zion Williamson is the one guy who can flip this. He scored 22 and 23 in the first two games, and Denver ranked just 21st in defensive rating last season. He’ll get to the rim.
Where this goes sideways
Double digits is a lot to lay, and Denver isn’t at full strength. Cam Johnson (ankle), Spencer Jones (hamstrings) and Julian Strawther (knee) are out, and Alpha Diallo is questionable with a wrist sprain. That thins the wing rotation behind Gordon. New Orleans has also hung around late in both games so far, and a late backdoor cover is very much on the table. The ticket count leans Denver, but slightly more of the money is on the Pelicans. If Missi plays and the line drops to 10, the edge shrinks.
Projected score: Nuggets 125, Pelicans 109
Jokic doesn’t go 5-for-19 twice in a row very often, and a fresh Denver team at home against a gassed opponent is the kind of spot that turns into a 15-point game by the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Nuggets -11.5 (-110)
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