Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – Barking Dog

by | Last updated Mar 30, 2024 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Saturday, March 30th, 4:05 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Money Line: Braves -137/Phillies +115
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Braves on Saturday, March 30th at Citizens Bank Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
ATL -137 -1.5 O 8.5 (-103)
PHI +115 +1.5 U 8.5 (-120)

It’s a battle of NL East rivals in Philadelphia as the Braves and Phillies square off at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 4:05 PM ET, and you can catch the action on NSPP+.

Max Fried gets the start for the Braves, while Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies. The over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, with the under currently favored at -120.

Braves vs. Phillies Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
Ronald Acuña Jr. 1 RF
Ozzie Albies 2 2B
Austin Riley 3 3B
Matt Olson 4 1B
Marcell Ozuna 5 DH
Michael Harris II 6 CF
Travis d’Arnaud 7 C
Orlando Arcia 8 SS
Jarred Kelenic 9 LF
Max Fried SP
Batting Order Position
Kyle Schwarber 1 DH
Trea Turner 2 SS
Alec Bohm 3 3B
Bryce Harper 4 1B
J.T. Realmuto 5 C
Nick Castellanos 6 RF
Bryson Stott 7 2B
Whit Merrifield 8 LF
Johan Rojas 9 CF
Aaron Nola SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Atlanta Braves: 1-0 SU / OU 1-0 / Runline 1-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 0-1 SU / OU 1-0 / Runline 0-1

The Braves and Phillies wrapped up their most recent game with the Braves picking up a 9-3 win on the road. Atlanta was the favorite coming into the game at -133 odds. The game finished with a total of 12 runs.

Neither team did much offensively until the 5th inning when the Phillies tied things up at 2-2. From there, the Braves took over, scoring two runs in the 7th inning, seven runs in the 8th inning, and one more in the 9th. The Phillies’ only home run came from Brandon Marsh.

Even though the Braves didn’t hit a home run, they made up for it with seven doubles, compared to just one for the Phillies. Matt Olson had a big game, going 3/5 with three doubles, while Adam Duvall drove in two runs.

Pitching Matchup

Last season, Max Fried made 14 starts for the Braves, finishing with a record of 8-1. His ERA for the year was 2.55, and he had a WHIP of 1.13. Fried’s batting average allowed was .234, while his on-base percentage allowed was .280. He finished the year with one complete game and one shutout, and he had a total of eight quality starts. For the season, Fried averaged 9.27 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.09 walks per nine innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio for the year was 4.4.

Aaron Nola is coming off a season in which he made 32 starts and went 12-9. His ERA for the season was 4.46, and he had a WHIP of 1.15. Nola’s batting average allowed was .235, and his on-base percentage allowed was .276. He made 16 quality starts and averaged 9.39 strikeouts per nine innings. Last season, Nola faced the Braves three times and went 0-0 with an ERA of 2.62.

Braves vs. Phillies Offense Outlook

Our player projections have Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson as the top two Braves players in terms of home run projections, with both of them having the 7th highest odds to hit a home run in today’s slate of games. Austin Riley is also in the top 10 in terms of home run projections league-wide. Ronald Acuña Jr. has the highest total hits projection on the team, and his home run projection is 3rd on the team and 10th in the league today.

Our projections have Kyle Schwarber as the Phillies player most likely to hit a home run, as his home run projection is 6th best in the league today. Bryce Harper is 9th in the league in terms of home run projections. Trea Turner is our top Phillies player in terms of total hits, with his total hits projection as 25th best in the league today.

Free Braves vs. Phillies MLB Pick

With the money line payout, we recommend taking the Phillies to pick up a win at home. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Phillies, giving you a good payout at +115.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Aaron Nola is projected to go the longest of any starter today. Fried is projected to finish with five K’s, compared to Nola with six.

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