Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Pick 7/5/19

by | Jul 5, 2019 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (45-42) vs. New York Mets (39-48), 7/5/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET Friday, July 5
Where: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Listed Pitchers: Vince Velasquez (2-5, 4.73 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) vs. Jake deGrom (4-7, 3.32, 1.11)
TV: NBCS Philadelphia, SNY

Moneyline: Mets -200/Phillies +175 (WagerWeb)
Over/Under: 8.5

Two teams playing some iffy ball as of late meet when the Phillies and Mets open a three-game NL East series Friday night in Queens. Philadelphia is in danger of fading a bit too far in the divisional race, while New York probably already has. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and deGrom at around -190 over Philly and Velasquez, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to about -200 and the total to 8.5.

Phillies vs. Mets Set-Up

Philadelphia just lost two of three games at Atlanta earlier this week, losing Thursday’s series rubber match 12-6. The Phillies actually scored four runs in the top of the first inning Thursday but trailed by the third and faded from there.

Just before that Philly dropped two of three games in Miami. So the Phillies are 2-4 over their last six games.

New York, meanwhile, just split two games at home with the Yankees, losing Wednesday’s series finale 5-1. The Mets then had Thursday off.

Just before that New York lost two of three to Atlanta, and just before that the Mets got swept four games at Philadelphia. So New York is 2-8 over its last 10 games.

At 45-42 overall Philadelphia sits in third place in the NL East, 6.5 games behind the division-leading Braves, with the 39-48 Mets 12.5 games back. The Phillies are also only a half-game behind Milwaukee and the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot, with New York 6.5 games back.

Philadelphia leads the season series with the Mets seven games to three.

Friday’s Starting Arms

deGrom, by our stringent standards, is 11/17 on quality starts this season and five for his last six. Last Friday he allowed three runs and six hits through six innings of a 6-2 New York loss to Atlanta. But over his last six starts, he’s allowed just 12 runs and 36 hits through 40 innings.

The Mets are just 5-12 with deGrom this season, and 1-6 over his last seven starts, but that’s not even close to being his fault.

Over three starts against the Phillies, last season deGrom allowed just one unearned run and 12 hits through 18 innings. New York won two of those three games.

Velasquez is just 1/9 on quality starts this season and 0 for three since returning to the rotation following a stint in the bullpen. Last Friday he gave up four runs and six hits through 4 1/3 innings of a 6-2 Philly loss to the Marlins. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed nine runs and 11 hits through 11 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia is 3-6 with Velasquez starting this season, 0-5 over his last five starts.

Over his last three starts against the Mets, two last year and one back in April of this season, Velasquez gave up five runs and 12 hits through 15 innings. The Phillies lost two of those three games.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .240/.322/.413 against right-handed pitching this season.

New York is batting .246/.318/.418 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.90 ERA this season and a 1.49 WHIP while allowing an .819 OPS.

The Mets pen owns a 5.51 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP while allowing an .829 OPS.

Numbers like those “help” both these units rank among the worst half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball at the moment.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 44-40 in Phillies games this season.
  • Overs are 44-33 in Mets games this season.
  • Overs are 18-17 in games played at Citi Field this season.
  • Unders are 8-1 with Velasquez this season.
  • Overs are 10-6 with deGrom this season.

Free MLB Pick

New York and deGrom own a considerable edge in the pitching match-up, and with other factors about a wash, the Mets should win this game. But there’s no way we’re giving a price like that when New York is just 5-12 with deGrom this season. So instead, in expectancy of “help” from either or both of these bullpens we’re playing the over on this game for our free MLB pick for Friday.

Take the OVER 8.5