Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Pick 6/20/21

by | Jun 20, 2021 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (34-34) vs. San Francisco Giants (45-26)

When: 4:10 p.m., Sunday, June 20

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Moneyline: PHI +115/SF -135 (GTBets - Bankroll Booster! Deposit $100 to $500 and they’ll match you dollar for dollar with a 100% REAL CASH BONUS!)

Runline: Phillies +1.5/Giants -1.5

Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (2-5, 3.99 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Sammy Long (0-0, 5.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)

Once They Get On

There’s no denying it: Sammy Long has a very strange-looking WHIP. Most pitchers with a high ERA also have a high WHIP, but Long has actually been pretty good at denying opponents baserunners. The problem for him is that once someone does get on base against Long, there’s a good chance that they’re going to score.

In nine innings of work this season, eight batters have managed to make it on base against Long. Five of them came around to score and had it been any worse, the Giants probably would have ended the Diamondbacks’ long losing skid. One thing that should help Long is that this time, he won’t be trying to put out a fire from the moment he enters the game. So far, he’s been Zach Littell’s personal fireman, rescuing him against Arizona after Littell failed to get an out while giving up four runs in the first inning.

Meeting the Moment

The Phillies have been a rather awful road team this year, but they’re at the point of the schedule in which they can’t get away with that any longer. They’re facing four games with the Mets in New York next weekend, and given that they’re four games back of the team from Queens, the Phils won’t get a better chance to catch up to the Mets until September, when it might be too late.

Getting a good result in California should go a long way to build the Phillies’ confidence on the road, and so far, the Phils are playing reasonably decent on this western swing. The San Francisco-Los Angeles trip is the toughest road swing in baseball right now (at least when you play San Diego, you’re usually gifted a trip to Arizona with it), but the Phillies have a 2-3 record in California against the NL West heavyweights. Getting a split of the six games here would be huge for Philadelphia.

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Perfectly Level

If you’ve been betting on the Phillies in every game this season, your wallet no longer notices the difference because Saturday’s win over the Giants bumped the Phillies back to zero in terms of money made or lost in 2021 for bettors. That’s what comes with being a team that nobody expected to be really good or really bad, and the Phils have been perfectly mediocre at 34-34. They’re pretty close to the same on the totals: they’ve gone 33-35 to the over. However, in recent weeks, the Phillies have been an under team. Seven of their past nine games have fallen below the closing O/U line.

When it comes to returns, the Giants are very different. San Francisco has brought home more than 20 times its bettors’ original stakes, mainly because it took the books a fair amount of time to recognize that the Giants had become a good team. With San Francisco now 19 games over .500, if you’ve been on the Giants from the beginning, you’re having a great year. When it comes to the totals, though, the books have been pretty accurate on the Giants: they’re 34-35-2 against the over on the season.

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 15-31 in their past 46 road games.
  • The Phillies are 2-6 in their past eight road games against a left-handed starter.
  • The Giants are 5-1 in their past six games overall.
  • The Giants are 26-7 in their past 33 games as a home favorite.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Phillies’ past six games overall
  • The under is 4-1 in the Phillies’ past five road games.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Giants’ past five games as a home favorite.
  • The over is 4-0 in the Giants’ past four after the opponent allowed five runs or more in the previous game.
  • The Phillies are 5-16 in their past 21 meetings in San Francisco.
  • The under is 7-3 in the past nine meetings in San Francisco.

Weather Report

This could be a great game for the over, as temperatures will hit 63 degrees, and the wind will be blowing 11 miles per hour out to left center.

Dan’s Pick

The Phillies have done much better on this trip than they have on past road swings, but they’re still not very good away from home. Plus, Zach Eflin hasn’t exactly been blessed with support when he’s on the mound this season. Eflin isn’t the problem, but the Phillies’ support of him has been so weak that they’re 2-7 in his past nine starts, and both of the two were against Atlanta.

I think Long will be better than he’s been without having to take care of someone else’s rough start, so I feel good backing the Giants here. Bet this week’s MLB picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at the web’s most fun sportsbook: MyBookie! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100 to receive the special bonus).