Phillies vs. Astros Game 6 Lean

by | Last updated Nov 5, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros
Date: Saturday November 5th, 08:03 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
Money Line: Phillies 117 / Astros -140
Total Line: 7.0


Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82)
Houston: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.77)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Matt Vierling CF
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Edmundo Sosa SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Zack Wheeler P

Astros Projected Lineup

Aledmys Díaz LF
Chas McCormick CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Framber Valdez P


Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 90-82-6 / Run Line W/L 92-86-0
Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 63-101-10 / Run Line W/L 92-82-0

The Houston Astros host the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, November 5th, at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:03 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 7.0.

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The Phillies will look to rebound from a close, 3-2 loss to Houston. Despite the loss, Philadelphia’s pitching staff gave up only three runs on nine hits. Offensively, they finished with just two runs on six hits. Philadelphia’s loss came as the underdog, getting 135.0 on the money line. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. However, for the season, Philadelphia still has an overall over-under record of 90-82-6.

Over the Phillies’ last five contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -1. Philadelphia’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 3.4 runs per game over their last five contests. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 55 series played, going 27-23-5.

The Astros will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Phillies by a score of 3-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Phillies to two runs on six hits. The Astros offense ended the game with just three runs on nine hits. Heading into action, Houston was the favorite at -150.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 150 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Combined, the Astros and Phillies’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Now, Houston had an over-under record of 63-101-10.

Across their last five contests, the Astros are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +1. Houston has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last five games, averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.52. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 37-13-6.

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Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia will roll with Zack Wheeler (12-7) as their starter. Through 26 appearances, Wheeler has an ERA of just 2.82 while averaging 5.88 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just .221 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.76 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Per game, Zack Wheeler is averaging 6.27, on a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. Command has been a problem for Wheeler, as he is giving up 2.0 walks per outing.

The Houston Astros will send Framber Valdez to the mound with an overall record of 17-6. Through 31 appearances, Valdez has an ERA of just 2.77 while averaging 6.49 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just .220 against him. Home runs have not been an issue for Valdez, as he is giving up just 0.49 per 9. In terms of strikeouts, Framber Valdez has a strong K% of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 6.26. Command has been a problem for Valdez, as he is giving up 3.0 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Houston History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros will be their 9th meeting of the season. Houston holds the edge in the series at 5-3. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-5.

Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last five games following a loss.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • Astros are 10-2 in their last 12 playoff games.
  • Astros are 5-1 in their last six playoff home games.

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Prediction

When we analyze the starting pitching, we see that Zack Wheeler’s ERA is two runs higher on the road. However, he pitches extremely well in night games. On the flip side, Framber Valdez is better on the road. However, he’s only allowed three earned runs over his last 24 innings. Lots of inconsistencies here! If forced to make a pick, my lean is the Houston Astros, but I wouldn’t wager more than a five-dollar foot long on it!

Free MLB Pick: Astros Moneyline