Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
NL Wild Card Series Game 3
Thursday, October 1, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Truist Park
The Phillies are slight favorites at -115 to -118 in the winner-take-all Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series, with the Braves at -103 to +100. The total is 7.5. My play is the Under 7.5.
Philadelphia’s pitching plan is the entry point here. Interim manager Don Mattingly called Game 3 “pretty much all hands on deck,” and the plan shows it: Aaron Nola gets the ball for four or five innings, then Zack Wheeler comes out of the bullpen on three days’ rest for another two or three. Wheeler was the best pitcher on the staff down the stretch, with a 1.71 ERA in five September starts, a 3.00 ERA overall and 10.72 strikeouts per nine. Putting your ace in the middle innings of an elimination game takes away the stretch where rallies usually happen.
Nola is the question mark. He went 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts against Atlanta this year, though most of the damage came in the first meeting (six runs in 4⅔ innings). He allowed three runs over 13⅓ innings in the other two. The Phillies don’t need a gem from him — they need four or five innings that keep it close until Wheeler takes over, with Jhoan Duran rested after sitting out Game 2.
Atlanta is going with an opener. Ray Kerr starts and faces the top of the Phillies’ order, and he held Philadelphia scoreless over 6⅓ innings in two September outings. Grant Holmes then takes the bulk innings. His underlying numbers aren’t great (5.04 xERA), but he was sharp against the Phillies in September, allowing two runs in 10 innings across two starts.
Neither offense has been hitting. Philadelphia hit .225 over its final 10 regular-season games, and Atlanta hit .226. In this series, Ronald Acuña Jr. is 0-for-6 and Matt Olson is hitting .125. The Phillies’ runs have come almost entirely from the long ball — Alec Bohm’s 10th-inning homer and back-to-back shots from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in Game 2.
The first two games fit this script. Atlanta won Game 1 5-3 on Austin Riley’s eighth-inning three-run homer after it was tied 3-3. Philadelphia won Game 2 4-3, and it took 10 innings to get there. That’s eight runs and then seven, with one late swing deciding each game.
The risk is Atlanta’s bullpen. Walt Weiss’ relief corps ranked fourth in MLB in ERA this season, but Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Didier Fuentes have all worked on back-to-back days, and Lee gave up the Schwarber and Harper homers in Game 2. If the Braves have to go deep into that bullpen, the late innings could open up. But with Wheeler covering the middle innings for Philadelphia, the Phillies’ side of the game should stay quiet, and that keeps a lid on the total.
Realistic outcomes: Phillies 4, Braves 3 (7 total); Braves 4, Phillies 2 (6 total); Phillies 3, Braves 2 (5 total); or Phillies 5, Braves 4 (9 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 7.5.
The Pick: Phillies/Braves Game 3 Under 7.5
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