Phillies vs. Brewers Moneyline Pick 6/8/22

by | Jun 8, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (33-23)
When: 8:10 p.m., Wednesday, June 8
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Moneyline: PHI -140/MIL +115
Runline: Phillies -1.5/Brewers +1.5
Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (3-4, 3.92 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (3-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)

Ending the Turmoil?

Firing Joe Girardi seems to have lit a fire under the Phillies, who are now winners of five in a row since terminating Girardi’s contract and are just three games under .500. It’s probably too late for the Phillies to do anything about going after the NL East, as they will be hard-pressed to make up 10.5 games on the Mets. However, they could still make up enough ground to snag a playoff spot, especially in the expanded playoff format that will exist this postseason.

However, the five-game winning streak could also be a bit of a mirage. Three of the five wins were against the Angels, who are in the midst of a 13-game losing streak, and the Phils got the Brewers on Tuesday night thanks to a pair of home runs off Milwaukee closer Josh Hader, something that doesn’t normally happen. The Phillies have had a fair amount of luck going their way since firing Girardi, and I think this team might be due for a regression to the mean. I can’t see this lasting for too much longer; this is still a flawed roster.

Pendulum Swinging

Aaron Nola has been part of that charmed Phillies life over the past week, as Philadelphia claimed a 6-5 decision it had no right to win after Nola gave up five runs in six innings of work to put the Phils in a hole against the Giants. But a pair of home runs off the Giants’ bullpen gave Philadelphia a victory, allowing Nola’s less-than-consistent play to actually come out in the Phillies’ favor for a change.

Nola has alternated between dominant and hittable between starts this season, but what hasn’t happened is him getting the run support he needs from his teammates. Over his past eight appearances, he’s conceded 16 runs in games 2, 4, 6, and 8 and three runs in games 1, 3, 5, and 7, yet only games 7 and 8 landed in the win column. Most times, he’s either lost a game to the bullpen or a lack of run support, as Philadelphia is 3-8 in games where Nola takes the hill.

Home Is Where His Heart Is

Adrian Houser has been borderline unhittable at times at home, as he’s got an ERA of 1.95 in 27.2 innings thrown in Milwaukee this season. On the road, it’s a very different story, as his ERA sits at 5.32 over 23.2 innings of work. The interesting thing is that he’s given up 22 hits at home and 27 hits away this season, suggesting that is not the problem. The problem appears to be that after giving up a baserunner at home, Houser seems to believe that he can pitch his way out of anything with the Brewer fans behind him.

On the road? He apparently loses confidence, as he’s given up 21 runs on the road to eight when he’s at home. He also doesn’t miss bats on the road, as he’s got just 14 strikeouts to his name compared to 27 strikeouts when he’s pitching in Milwaukee. Houser can be effective, but it seems he needs a crowd behind him to get the most out of his talent.

Get our Dodgers vs. White Sox Free Pick 6/8/22 >>>

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 4-0 in their past four against a team above .500.
  • The Phillies are 7-3 in their past ten games against the NL Central.
  • The Brewers are 5-2 in their past seven against the NL East.
  • The Brewers are 5-1 in their past six games as an underdog.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Phillies’ past six games overall.
  • The under is 5-0-1 in the Phillies’ past six games against the NL Central.
  • The under is 10-4 in the Brewers’ past 14 Wednesday games.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Brewers’ past five as a home underdog.
  • The Brewers have won four of five from the Phillies.
  • The under is 4-0-1 in the past five matchups between the teams.

Weather Report

With temperatures at 58 degrees and light rain in the forecast, look for the Brewers to opt to simply play indoors for the evening.

Dan’s Pick

Houser at home represents value, especially with my thoughts that the Phillies are about to meet some regression to the mean. I’ve been impressed with the Phils shaking off adversity after firing Girardi, but the cracks that caused him to go are going to pop up in a few places eventually.

With Milwaukee a solid underdog play when you get plus money on them, I think the value is too good to pass on here. Give me the Brewers. Note: It’s a great day to take charge of your betting life and decide that you’re not going to overpay for odds anymore! Stop spending money you don’t need to spend on odds! Why waste money you worked so hard to earn? Start betting at cheaper prices (odds) TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports! We’ve advertised them for over 10 years with ZERO complaints! Click here to stop wasting money!

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