Phillies vs. Marlins Picks & Predictions 7/15/22

by | Last updated Jul 15, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Friday, July 15th, 06:40 ET

Location: LoanDepot park

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Money Line: Phillies +126 / Marlins -150 (WagerWeb – Football is coming! Check out their 20 point teasers!)

Total Line: 7.0


Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson (4-3, 4.53)
Miami: Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.73)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Didi Gregorius SS
Matt Vierling CF
Darick Hall 1B
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Kyle Gibson P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Brian Anderson 3B
Miguel Rojas 1B
Avisaíl García RF
Jesus Sanchez CF
Jacob Stallings C
Garrett Cooper 1B
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Jon Berti 2B
Joey Wendle SS
Sandy Alcantara P


Philadelphia Phillies: 46-43-0 SU / OU 46-41-2 / Run Line W/L 46-43-0
Miami Marlins: 43-45-0 SU / OU 41-42-5 / Run Line W/L 44-44-0

The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, July 15th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Miami as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Phillies come into this matchup having suffered a 6 run loss to the Blue Jays (8-2). On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Phillies staff allowed 11 hits. The Phillies ended the game with just 2 runs on 2 hits. The loss came as Philadelphia was the betting underdog, getting 105.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Phillies and Blue Jays combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. Philadelphia has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (46-41-2).

Over the Phillies’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -12. On offense, Philadelphia’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 12-14-2.

In their last game, the Marlins picked up a close win over the Pirates by a score of 3-2. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 6 hits. The Marlins’ offense ended the game with just 3 runs on 9 hits. Miami picked up the win while being favored at -160.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 46 games, winning at a rate of 63.0%. Combined, the Marlins and Pirates run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Now, Miami had an over-under record of 41-42-5.

Across their last 5 contests, the Marlins are above .500, going 3-2. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential over their last 5 games (-1). Miami has played above .500 baseball, despite averaging just 2.6 runs in their last 5 games. This is a drop in production compared to their season average of 4.20. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 9-15-4.

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia will roll with Kyle Gibson (4-3) as their starter. To date, Gibson has an ERA of 4.53 while lasting an average of 5.36 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.251. Home runs have been an issue for Gibson, as he is allowing an average of 1.28 per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Kyle Gibson is averaging 4.41, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.46 walks per outing.

Sandy Alcantara gets the start for the Marlins, with an overall record of 9-3. In his previous outings, Alcantara has lasted an average of 7.23 innings, putting together an ERA of just 1.73. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.193 against the right-hander. Home runs have not been an issue for Alcantara, as he is giving up just 0.42 per 9. In terms of strikeouts, Sandy Alcantara has a strong K% of 22.0%, including a per game average of 6.17. Alcantara comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.14 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia vs Miami History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will be playing their 8th game of the season. Currently, Miami is winning the season series 4-3. Through 7 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-3, with the average run total sitting at 7.74 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.86 runs. Miami won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 10 wins to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11, with the average run total being 7.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.11 runs per game.

More Picks: Get our Kansas City at Toronto free pick 7/15/22

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia’s last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
  • Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Friday’s NL East showdown between Philadelphia and Miami, the Marlins have the edge on the moneyline. Even though Kyle Gibson is coming off an outstanding start vs the Cardinals, I don’t see the Phillies producing enough offense vs Sandy Alcantara and his WHIP of .91. I like Miami on the moneyline.

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