Phillies vs. Nationals Moneyline Pick

by | Last updated Sep 30, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals
Date: Friday September 30th, 07:05 ET
Location: Nationals Park
Money Line: Phillies -179 / Nationals +165
Total Line: 8.5


Philadelphia: Bailey Falter (5-4, 4.21)
Washington: Erick Fedde (6-11, 5.34)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Brandon Marsh CF
Jean Segura SS
Alec Bohm 3B
Nick Castellanos RF
Bryson Stott SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Bailey Falter P

Nationals Projected Lineup

Israel Pineda C
Victor Robles CF
Ildemaro Vargas 3B
Joey Meneses 1B
Luis Garcia 2B
C.J. Abrams SS
Luke Voit 1B
Nelson Cruz CF
Lane Thomas RF
Erick Fedde P


Philadelphia Phillies: 83-71-0 SU / OU 78-72-5 / Run Line W/L 76-79-0
Washington Nationals: 54-101-0 SU / OU 70-76-9 / Run Line W/L 69-86-0

The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday September 30th at Nationals Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-179), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Philadelphia heads into today’s action, looking to rebound from a 2-0 loss to the Cubs. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 2 runs while allowing 7 hits. The Phillies ended the game with no runs on 6 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -200.0. Through 105 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 57.9%. Combined, the Phillies and Cubs fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. Even after this game, Philadelphia’s overall over-under record sits at 78-72-5.

The Phillies will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 0-5 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -9. Philadelphia’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 49 series played, going 23-21-5.

The Nationals will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Braves by a score of 3-2. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Braves to 2 runs and 6 hits. At the plate, the Nationals only came through for 3 runs on 5 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 170.0 on the moneyline, the Nationals still picked up the win. In their 132 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 34.0%. With this result, the Nationals and Braves combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 70-76-9.

The Nationals come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -11 over their last 5 games. If Washington is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.4 runs per game, compared to a season average of 3.75. Washington has a below .500 series record of just 11-33-5.

Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Bailey Falter to the mound with an overall record of 5-4. To date, Falter has an ERA of 4.21 while lasting an average of 4.28 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the left-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.267. Opponents are hitting for power against Falter, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.87. In terms of strikeouts, Bailey Falter has a strong strikeout percentage of 21.0%, including a per game average of 3.78. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.75 walks per contest.

Erick Fedde gets the start for the Nationals, with an overall record of 6-11. Fedde gets the start with an ERA of 5.34. On average, he has lasted 4.77 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.283. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above average rate against Fedde. This year, he is allowing 1.36 HR’s per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Erick Fedde has a strong K% of 17.0%, including a per game average of 3.6. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.14 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Washington History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will be playing their 16th game of the season. Philadelphia has the lead in the series at 13-2. Through 15 games, the series over-under record is 8-5, with the average run total sitting at 11.21 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.27 runs. Going back to last year, Philadelphia won the season series, 13 games to 6. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 11-8. Last year, the Phillies and Nationals averaged 11.21 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.58 runs per contest.

More Picks: Get our Red Sox at Jays projected moneyline winner 9/30/22

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
  • Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington’s last 12 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Prediction

Leading into Friday’s NL East matchup between Philadelphia and Washington, the Phillies are in desperate need of a win. In their race to lock up a wild card spot, Philadelphia has struggled down the stretch, including being swept by the Cubs. However, they have an opportunity to get back on track as the Nationals will be sending Erick Fedde to the mound with a WHIP of 1.57. I like the Phillies on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Philadelphia Moneyline

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