Phillies vs. Padres Game 2 NLCS Odds & Predictions

by | Oct 19, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres
Date: Wednesday October 19th, 04:35 ET
Location: Petco Park
TV: FOX / FS1
Money Line: Phillies +100 / Padres -120
Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25)
San Diego: Blake Snell (8-10, 3.45)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Brandon Marsh CF
Jean Segura 2B
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Bryson Stott SS
J.T. Realmuto C
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Trent Grisham CF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Juan Soto RF
Wil Myers 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Austin Nola C
Josh Bell 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Joe Musgrove P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75-0 SU / OU 86-78-5 / Run Line W/L 87-82-0
San Diego Padres: 89-73-0 SU / OU 79-85-6 / Run Line W/L 78-92-0

The San Diego Padres host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday October 19th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Philadelphia will be looking to tack on another win, after taking down San Diego by the score of 2-0. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 0 runs on 1 hit. On offense, Philadelphia’s lineup put together a total of 3 hits, leading to 2 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 100.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Phillies and San Diego fell short of the over-under betting line of 6.5 runs. Even after this game, Philadelphia’s overall over-under record sits at 86-78-5.

The Phillies are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +13. Offensively, the team has put up 26 runs in their last 5 games. Philadelphia’s season average comes in at 4.62 (7th. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 54 series played, going 27-22-5.

The Padres will look to get back on track after dropping their last game by a score of 2-0 to the Phillies. For the game, the pitching staff held the Phillies to 2 runs on 3 hits. With their 1 hit, the Padres could only plate 0 runners. Leading into the game, San Diego was the betting favorite at -120.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 121 games, winning at a rate of 57.9%. Combined, the Padres and Phillies’ run total fell below the over-under line of 6.5 runs. Now, San Diego had an over-under record of 79-85-6.

Across their last 5 contests, the Padres are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +1. San Diego has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.33. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 28-19-7.

Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 11-13. Through 32 appearances, Nola has an ERA of just 3.25 while averaging 6.41 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just .218 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.83 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Aaron Nola has a strong strikeout percentage of 28.9%, including a per game average of 7.34. Command has been a problem for Nola, as he is giving up 1.27 walks per outing.

San Diego will roll with Blake Snell (8-10) as their starter. Snell gets the start with an ERA of 3.45. On average, he has lasted 5.33 innings per appearance. Snell will take the mound a BA allowed of .218. Not only does Snell have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.77 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Overall, Blake Snell has struckout 32.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 7.12 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.59 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs San Diego History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres will be their 9th meeting of the season. So far, Philadelphia is leading the season series, 5-3. Through 8 games, the series over-under record is 2-6, with the average run total sitting at 8.33 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.5 runs.

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Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego’s last 10 games

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into game 2 of this NLCS Series, the Padres are the slight favorite to pick up a win and even things up. Even though I don’t see the Padres getting shut down quite like last night, I expect the San Diego bats to continue to struggle vs Aaron Nola. I recommend taking the Phillies to grab the 2-0 lead.

Free MLB Pick: Phillies Moneyline

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