Phillies vs. Padres Pick for April 26th
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Date: Friday, April 26th, 9:40 ET
Location: PETCO Park
TV: None
Money Line: Phillies -112/Padres -107
Total Line: 7.5
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the San Diego Padres and the Phillies on Friday, April 26th at PETCO Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | -112 | -1.5 | O 7.5 (-118) |
| SD | -107 | +1.5 | U 7.5 (-105) |
At 9:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Padres will face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego and features a Phillies club that is 16-10 this season. The Padres are 14-14 and will be sending Joe Musgrove to the mound vs. Aaron Nola for the Phillies.
Philadelphia is the slight favorite on the money line at -112, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. If you’re looking to watch this one on TV, it is being carried by Bally Sports SouthEast.
Phillies vs. Padres Projected Lineup
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 1 | DH |
| Trea Turner | 2 | SS |
| Bryce Harper | 3 | 1B |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4 | C |
| Alec Bohm | 5 | 3B |
| Brandon Marsh | 6 | LF |
| Nick Castellanos | 7 | RF |
| Bryson Stott | 8 | 2B |
| Johan Rojas | 9 | CF |
| Aaron Nola | – | SP |
| Player | Batting Order | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | 1 | 2B |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2 | RF |
| Jake Cronenworth | 3 | 1B |
| Jurickson Profar | 4 | LF |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 5 | SS |
| Luis Campusano | 6 | C |
| Jackson Merrill | 7 | CF |
| Graham Pauley | 8 | DH |
| Tyler Wade | 9 | 3B |
| Joe Musgrove | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
Philadelphia Phillies: 16-10 SU / OU 10-15 / Runline 12-14
Phillies Records & Recent Play
The Phillies’ offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Reds, closing out their series with a 5-0 win. After scoring four runs in the 3rd inning, the Phillies went on to add another run in the 6th. Overall, they scored their five runs on 11 hits and hit just one home run.
Zack Wheeler put together a good start for the Phillies, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out eight Reds batters. Bryce Harper was hot at the plate, going 2/3 with a homer and two RBIs.
Philadelphia is 16-10 overall this season, and they are 2nd in the NL East, 2.5 games behind the Braves for the division lead. The Phillies closed out their series vs. the Reds with a win and are 4-2-2 in series this year. So far, they are just 3-3 in division games.
At home, the Phillies have gone 10-6 this year, and they are 6-4 on the road. Philadelphia has been excellent in night games, going 10-4 this season. As the favorite, the Phillies are 14-7, and they are 2-3 as the underdog.
When betting the run line on the Phillies, it’s important to note that they have a run line record of 12-14 this season. They have been slightly better on the road, going 5-5 against the run line, compared to 7-9 at home. Their average run margin for the season is +0.5 runs per game, but that number jumps to +0.8 on the road. They have been favored in 21 of their 26 games, going 10-11 against the run line in those games.
When the Phillies have played games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, the under has hit in five of the six games. The combined run average in Phillies games this season is 8.2 runs per game, and their over/under record is 10-15 overall. The over/under line for today’s game against the Padres is set at 7.5 runs.
Padres Records & Recent Play
The Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rockies with a 10-9 loss. San Diego was the heavy favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Rockies scored three times in the 2nd and added another three runs in the 3rd. The Padres’s offense scored a run in the 2nd and added three more in the 3rd to tie things up. However, the Padres couldn’t hold the lead, and the Rockies scored another four runs in the 4th to pick up the win.
Randy Vasquez got the start for the Padres and took the loss. He only lasted 2 2/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on six hits. Jurickson Profar had a big game at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs. The Padres also had a six-run 8th inning but couldn’t complete the comeback. Xander Bogaerts scored the team’s 8th run, going 2/5.
San Diego is 14-14 overall and trail the Dodgers by 2.5 games in the NL West. So far, they are 8-8 against other teams in the NL West. The Padres dropped the first game of their series vs. the Rockies but took the next three games.
At home, the Padres are 6-8 this year and have gone 8-6 on the road. This season, the Padres have really struggled as the underdog, going 5-7, and they are 0-3 as the underdog at home. San Diego’s series record is 4-4-2 this year.
San Diego has been a run line bettor’s dream on the road, going 11-3 against the run line, while they have been a fade at home going just 4-10 against the run line. They have been a run line underdog in 12 games and have gone 8-4 in those games.
San Diego’s over/under record for the season is 14-13, and the average over/under line in their games is eight runs. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone 4-3. The Padres’ games have averaged 9.6 runs per game, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. So far this season, 75% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their games have gone over that line in 4 of 7 games.
Pitching Matchup
After starting the season with two wins, Aaron Nola is still looking for his first win of the season. He has been solid in each of his first two starts, as he went six innings in his first start and 7 1/3 innings in his second. In his last start, he went eight innings and struck out seven batters, but he did give up a home run. Today, he is on the road against the Padres.
Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today and comes into the game with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 5.75. In his six starts, Musgrove has pitched three quality starts and is averaging 6.61 strikeouts per nine innings. Musgrove’s most recent outing was on April 21st, where he picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs. He has won two straight starts. At home, Musgrove is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA compared to 1-0 with a 10.69 ERA on the road.
Phillies vs. Padres Offense Outlook
Philadelphia’s offense is averaging 4.3 runs per game this season, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.8 runs per contest. The Phillies are 5th in the league in home runs and have the 8th best team batting average at .249. Alec Bohm has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 17/35 in his last ten games with two homers and 11 RBIs. Overall, he is hitting .333 with three homers.
Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh are both tied for 2nd on the team with five homers, while Harper comes into the game with a seven-game hitting streak and has gone 10/24 in his last seven games. Kyle Schwarber has six homers this season but is batting just .194 and has gone 4/36 in his last ten games.
So far this season, the Padres offense has been one of the league’s best, averaging five runs per game and batting a collective .259, which is the 5th best mark in the league. They have also been one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, as their 28 homers is the 5th-best mark in the league. San Diego is also near the top of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been the Padres’ best power threat so far, as his six home runs is the best mark on the team and 5th best in the league. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim have also been solid run producers, with Profar leading the team with 18 RBIs and Kim 2nd with 17. Kim has also been hot of late, going 9/33 (.273) with two homers over his last nine games.
Free Phillies vs. Padres MLB Pick
Our prediction for this Phillies vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line, with the payout being -107.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove has a better chance of picking up the win than Aaron Nola, and we also have Musgrove finishing with six strikeouts compared to Nola’s five.
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