Pick: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres – 6/16/18

Time: 5:10 PM ET
Venue: SunTrust Park
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
TV: Fox Sports South
Moneyline: Atlanta (-195) / San Diego (+167)
Over/Under: 8.5
By handicapper Bryan B

After winning the series opener 4-2 on Thursday, the Atlanta Braves took an “L” Friday night against the San Diego Padres. The Braves were up 3-2 heading into the Top of the 7th when reliever Sam Freeman (4.28 ERA & 1.32 WHIP) was shelled for three earned runs, and the Padres proceeded to tack on another two in the top of the frame to put up a five-spot on Atlanta. After all, was said and done, the visitors evened the four-game series set at one a piece with a 9-3 triumph. It was Sam Freeman’s third blown save for the year and an upsetting loss for a quality Braves team oft plagued by their tenuous bullpen. This game will be the sixth meeting between these two clubs on the season, with San Diego holding a 3-2 advantage in the win column over the Braves thus far.

Atlanta looks to “Newk” Padres

What a year it’s been for the Baby Braves. At 40-29 (.580) overall, the Braves sit atop the NL East Standings one and a half games ahead of the Washington Nationals. Led by their prolific offense, Atlanta leads the National League with 339 runs scored which is fourth best in the League. In their immaculate new stadium at the Battery in Atlanta, the Braves are 19-13 (.594) this year. Atlanta boasts a +63 run differential, which is second best in the National League behind the Chicago Cubs. However, recently the Braves have been mired in mediocrity. Atlanta’s 5-5 (.500) in their last ten games.


Taking the mound Saturday afternoon for the Braves will be 6’5″ 255 lbs. left-handed hurler, Sean Newcomb (7-2, 2.92 ERA & 1.23 WHIP). The 25-year old’s sophomore campaign has been nothing short of stellar. However, in his last outing at the Los Angeles Dodgers, he was shelled for five runs and lost his first game since April 2nd. Looking to bounce back, he’ll face a Padres team that he’s had great success against historically. In fact, Newcomb has never given up a single run to a San Diego Padres player in his brief career. Newcomb boasts a 2-0 record against San Diego with a 0.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. On June 5th, Newcomb threw six scoreless frames allowing just three hits in a 14-1 drubbing at San Diego.

San Diego staying classy

The Padres are hanging in there in the tightly bunched NL West Standings despite technically being in last place. San Diego’s just 6.5 games behind the division-leading Arizona Diamondbacks, and plan to inch closer with a victory at SunTrust Park Saturday afternoon. Overall, the Padres are 34-38 (.472) on the season with a 16-17 (.485) mark away from home. In their last ten games, the Padres are 6-4. San Diego’s played five games versus Atlanta thus far, owning a 3-2 advantage with the scoring knotted at 26 a piece. The Padres look to extend their lead in the season series sending Jordan Lyles (2-3, 4.83 ERA & 1.34 WHIP) to the hill.

Lyles has had a rough go of it as of late, recording back-to-back losses. There hasn’t been an abundance of sunshine in the month of June for Mr. Lyles. He’s gone 0-2 with a 10.45 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. Things don’t look brighter on the horizon with Atlanta set to tee off on him Saturday afternoon. On June 5th, Lyles allowed eight earned runs in a 14-1 loss to the Braves in San Diego. In his career, Lyles is 0-1 with an 8.82 ERA and 1.96 WHIP against Atlanta. He’s allowed six extra-base hits, two homers and nine RBI in contests facing the Braves. Atlanta hitters average .362 against Lyles. Freddie Freeman has gone five for nine with three doubles, one home run and two RBI against Lyles. Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson has been flawless versus Lyles going two for two with a homer and three RBI.


Vegas likes Atlanta (-195) in this one, nabbing them as the favorite. Essentially, they’re saying the Braves will take this one 66% of the time. On the year, Atlanta’s a game below .500 against the Padres. However, the last time these two pitchers faced-off a week and a half ago Atlanta won 14-1. Not to mention, San Diego’s lost eight of their last nine contests at Atlanta. In the infamous words of Shooter McGavin, “they must be putting something in the water.” Newcomb is a stud, and Lyles is a dud. Newcomb’s track record against the Padres is flawless while Lyles record against the Braves is pitiful. The NL’s most potent offense will feast on Lyles yet again Saturday afternoon. Atlanta should take this one 85% of the time, so we’re getting tremendous value with the line offered. With an edge of 19%, take the Braves to knot the season series at three a piece with a stress-free victory over San Diego. To get the best line on this game check out Intertops who offer new bettors a free $100 if you deposit $100!