Pick: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 6/8/18

Brewers vs. Phillies
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
When: June 8th, 2018 7:05PM ET
Moneyline: Brewers +115 / Phillies -120
Over/Under: 8
By Prognosticator Darin Zank

The Brewers and Phillies both got off to great starts to this season, but both have struggled over the recent days. Who will break their funk when these teams meet to open a three-game weekend series at
Citizens Bank Park Friday night (7:05 ET).

The Line

MLB betting odds opened this game with Philly favored by around -125, the over/under offered at eight runs. Early betting action at 5Dimes then pushed the Phillies down a nickel or so, to the -120 range/

Set-Up

Milwaukee went off this season with a “total wins” over/under of 86. Now, despite losing back-to-back series to the lowly White Sox and earlier this week to the Indians, the Brewers are still on a pace to win 96. Milwaukee had a nice run with the sticks not too long ago but has scored a total of just four runs over its last three games, including a 3-1 loss at Cleveland Wednesday. The Brewers then had Thursday off.

At 37-25 the Brew Crew leads the NL Central by a half-game over the second-place Cubs.

Philly began this season playing against an O/U of 76 wins. Now, even after dropping two of three games to the Cubbies at Wrigley this week the Phillies are still on a pace to win 86. The Phillies started this season 25-16 but are only 7-12 over their last 19 games, 1-5 over their last six.

Wednesday Philadelphia lost 7-5 on a Chicago grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, and Thursday they fell 4-3.

At 32-28 the Phillies sit three games behind co-leaders Atlanta and Washington in the NL East.

Philly is also 6-1 on the unders over its last seven games, mainly because they’ve also been having a bit a time scoring runs.

This is the first encounter between these two teams this season. Last year these teams split six games, with unders going 4-2, as the Phillies outscored the Brewers 33-27. However, we don’t put too much stock into what happened last year because both teams have made changes and apparently improved.

Friday’s Pitching Match-Up

Philly’s Vince Velasquez (4-6, 3.82), by our tough accounting, is 5/12 on quality starts this season. He’d have a few more QS but for a short leash. Last Saturday he held San Francisco to one run through 6 1/3 innings, and over his previous six outings, he’s allowed eight ER through 33 2/3 innings. Philly is 5-7 with Velasquez this season, with the totals going 6-6.

In one career start against Milwaukee, two seasons ago, Velasquez gave up two runs through 4 1/3 innings of a 6-3 Phillies victory.

The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin (4-1, 3.39) is only 3/13 on QS this year, but part of that is also because of a short leash. Last Sunday he held the White Sox scoreless through 5 1/3 innings, and over his last six starts, he’s allowed more than two runs just once. Milwaukee is 10-3 with Chacin this season, the unders 9-4.

In one start last year for San Diego against Philadelphia Chacin allowed just one run and three hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 2-1 Padres win.

We’re calling this pitching match-up a wash.

The Bullpens

The Milwaukee bullpen ranks 1st in the Majors in ERA at 2.61 and 3rd in WHIP at 1.14, while going 17/27 on save opportunities.

The Phillies bullpen ranks 11th in ERA at 3.65 and 11th in WHIP at 1.28, while going 14/21 on save opportunities.

We’re giving the Brewers the edge in the comparison of the bullpens.

Battling Splits

Milwaukee ranks 8th against right-handed pitching with a .253 team batting average, 13th with a .319 team OBP and 11th with a .415 team slugging percentage.

Philly, meanwhile, ranks 26th against RHP with a .232 BA, 19th with a .313 OBP and 19th with a .394 slugging percentage.

We’re giving the check-mark in the batting splits to Milwaukee.