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Pick Red Sox -155 vs Yankees

by | Aug 4, 2018 | mlb

Time: 4:05 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park. Boston, Massachusetts.
Listed Pitchers: Chance Adams (NYY) & Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)
TV: FS1
Moneyline: NYY (+135) / BOS (-155)
Over/Under: 10

Fenway Park is the site for game three of a four-game set between bitter American League East rivals, Boston and New York. The Red Sox clobbered the Yankees in game one, winning 15-7. Then, last night the hometown Sox decisively tamed the Bronx Bombers 4-1. Consequently, the Red Sox extended their lead in the AL East Standings over New York to 7.5 games. Saturday’s clash will be the 12th of 19 Regular Season matchups slated between these two foes. Currently, Boston leads the season series 6-5 thru 11 games, outscoring the Yankees 72-57 thus far.

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Third time isn’t the charm for the Yankees

With the 4-1 loss Friday night at Fenway Park, the Yanks have lost back-to-back games against their abhorrent nemesis. Tack on the 7-5 loss to the lowly Baltimore Orioles earlier in the week, and the Yankees have lost three straight games at an inopportune time. Now, the Bronx Bombers are digging themselves into a deep hole in the AL East Standings and need to start winning some games to stay within striking distance of the red-hot Red Sox. Let’s not kid ourselves, the Yankees are still having a phenomenal season and if they were in any other division they’d be in first place. However, they’re in the top-heavy AL East and reside in second-place in the Standings right now. During the three-game slump, New York’s been outscored 26-13.

Since All-Star Aaron Judge has been on the disabled-list, the Yankees have gone 3-4 in their last seven decisions. Their three wins were against bottom-feeders: Kansas City (2) and Baltimore (1). His presence in the lineup is sorely missed, and the Yankees will need him back as soon as possible if they’re planning on having any prayer to catch the Red Sox. Currently, the Bronx Bombers have a little bit of separation in the AL Wild Card Race. New York owns the 1st Wild Card Spot, five games ahead of second-place Oakland. The Bronx Bombers own the second-best offense in the League, having plated 559 runs this season. Their pitching has been solid as well, allowing just 433 runs thus far which is tied-4th in MLB with Washington. With a +126 run differential, the Yankees have the third-best plus-minus in all the Majors. On the road, New York’s accrued a 30-24 (.556) record this season.

Boston buries New York again

The Red Sox handled the Yankees yet again Friday night, improving their league-best record to 77-34 (.694). In first-place in MLB and the American League East Division, Boston’s proved they’re the team to beat this year. Their dominance can’t be overlooked and they’re quietly racking up victories like nobody’s business. Boston’s won six of their past seven (.857) and nine of 13 (.692) post-All-Star Break. No team has come close to the Red Sox in the past couple months, as they’ve won 29 of their last 37 (.784) decisions. It’s should come as no surprise that the best team in the League has some of the best statistics in MLB too. The Red Sox own the most prolific offense in the League, having scored 591 runs this year. Their rotation has been great as well, allowing just 404 runs thus far which is second-best in the Majors. Boston’s +187 run differential is the best in the business.

Last night’s 4-1 win over the Yankees started out with some animosity early on. New York’s ace Luis Severino (14-5, 3.08 ERA & 1.11 WHIP) accidentally threw a pitch up and in on Boston’s All-Star Mookie Betts (.345 AVG, 25 HR, 57 RBI & .429 OBP) in the bottom of the first. The “transgression” resulted in an explosion from Boston-manager Alex Cora, who inevitably was tossed from the contest. Shortly thereafter, the Red Sox got busy. Steve Pearce (.319 AVG, 9 HR, 30 RBI & .392 OBP) blasted a two-run shot off Severino to give the Sox the early 2-0 lead. Then, Eduardo Nunez (.261 AVG, 6 HR, 31 RBI & .289 OBP) proceeded to notch an RBI-single in the bottom of the first and the Red Sox never looked back.

Veteran Rick Porcello (14-4, 3.84 ERA & 1.16 WHIP) threw an 86-pitch complete-game, earning the win for the first-place Red Sox. The former Cy Young Award Winner allowed just one hit and one earned run, while striking out nine and giving up no free passes. His only slip-up was a solo-shot by Miguel Andujar (.292 AVG, 14 HR, 48 RBI & .323 OBP) in the Top of the third inning. Porcello’s been brilliant lately, winning his last three starts while compiling a 2.23 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. With 14 wins, Porcello’s tied with Luis Severino for the most wins of any American League Pitcher. Severino earned another loss and is mired in a brutal slump as of late. In his last three starts, the Yankee ace is 0-3 with a 9.60 ERA and 2.00 WHIP.

The two hottest players for the Red Sox right now are Mookie Betts and Steve Pearce. Betts has gone five for eight (.625) with three runs, two extra-base hits, an RBI and two walks during the current series with the Bronx Bombers. Nobody in the League has produced more than Pearce in the last two games. He’s gone four for eight (.500) with four home runs and eight RBI. These two and the rest of the Red Sox look to continue their current domination of the Yankees at Fenway Park Saturday afternoon. Boston’s 40-15 (.727) at home this season, which is the best home record in MLB. In five meetings with New York at Fenway Park thus far, the Red Sox are 4-1 (.800). They’ve outscored their arch rival 46-22 in those five games in their house.

Adams vs. Eovaldi

The Yankees have a depleted rotation right now. Consequently, right-hander Chance Adams will make his Major League debut Saturday at Fenway Park. It’s a tall task to ask Adams to make his debut against the best team in the League with the most prolific offense to boot. Adams hasn’t even been successful at AAA-Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this year, accruing a 3-5 record with a 4.50 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for the RailRiders.

Recently acquired Nathan Eovaldi (4-4, 3.80 ERA & 0.94 WHIP) is slated to make his second start for the Red Sox in this one. In his Red Sox debut on July 29th, Eovaldi pitched seven scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory over the Minnesota Twins. He allowed just four hits, while striking out five and giving up zero walks. Eovaldi’s been dynamite lately and was an excellent deadline acquisition from Tampa Bay to bolster an already stellar Sox rotation. In his last two starts, Eovaldi’s 1-0 with a dazzling 0.69 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Eovaldi has made four career starts at Fenway Park, accruing a 3-0 record with a 4.27 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

Where’s the value?

The oddsmakers have the hometown Red Sox (-155) as the favorite in this AL East battle at Fenway Park, justifiably so in my humble opinion. Boston’s the best team in the League, and their 40-15 home record (.727) is also best in the Bigs. The Red Sox are up 6-5 in the season series versus the Yankees, but they’re 4-1 versus the Bronx Bombers at Fenway Park. Boston’s handled them in back-to-back games, and they’re much healthier right now than their archrival. Boston’s the better team with home field advantage and the benefit of facing a pitcher with no Major League experience in New York’s Adams. With the line at -155, the Red Sox would need to win this one 60.8% of the time to make betting on them profitable. According to my calculations, Boston has a 70.3% chance to win this game, which gives us a nice 9.5% edge. With every advantage imaginable to go along with a 9.5% edge against the number, I advocate for a wager on the Boston Red Sox on the money line here.

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