Pick: Seattle Mariners look to avoid the sweep in Anaheim
Event: Mariners vs. Angels
Date/Time: July 29, 2018 at 4:07 PM EDT
Location: Angel Stadium
Money Line: SEA +102 / LAA -112
Total line: 9 -110
By Darin Zank
The Angels shoot for a sweep of the Mariners Sunday afternoon in Anaheim (4:07 ET). How are we playing this game with our free daily MLB picks?
The MLB Betting Line
Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Felix Pena at around -115 over Seattle and Marco Gonzales, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.
The Angels could also be found getting upwards of +170 giving the run and a half on the run line.
Los Angeles won the opener of this three-game series Friday night 4-3 on a Kole Calhoun homer in the bottom of the 10th inning. The Angels then took Saturday’s contest 11-5, banging out 13 hits, including eight for extra bases. LA won at -135 on the MLB odds Friday and at -125 against Felix Hernandez Saturday.
So following a 1-5 stretch, the Angels have won four games in a row. At 54-52 overall Los Angeles trails division-leading Houston by 13 games in the AL West and sits eight games back of Seattle in the battle for the second American League wild-card slot.
The Mariners, meanwhile, are just 3-8 over their last 11 games. At 61-43 overall Seattle trails the Astros by five games in the AL West, but also clings to that second American League wild-card spot, for the moment.
These two teams have split 14 meetings this season.
Sunday’s Starting Arms
Pena (1-1, 3.34), by our strict standards, is 1/6 on quality starts this season, but he’s actually been pretty good as of late. Tuesday he held the White Sox to two runs and four hits through six innings, and over his last four starts, he’s allowed five runs and 15 hits through 20 2/3 innings. On the year LA is 3-3 with Pena, with the unders going 4-1.
This will be Pena’s first-ever start against Seattle, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.
Lefty Gonzales (11-5, 3.38) is 11/20 on quality starts, and four for his last four. Last Sunday he held the White Sox to two runs and four hits through 6 1/3 innings, and over his previous four starts, including two vs. these Angels, he’s allowed just four runs and 17 hits through 28 1/3 innings. On the season the Mariners are a profitable 14-6 with Gonzales, with the unders going 12-8.
In six starts this year and last against the Angels Gonzales allowed 11 runs over 32 1/3 innings. Seattle is 4-2 in those six games, with the overs going 4-2.
We’re giving the Mariners and Gonzales the edge in this pitching match-up.
Sunday’s Batting Splits
Seattle ranks 7th in the Majors this year against right-handed pitching with a .254 team batting average, 22nd with a .313 team OBP and 14th with a .412 team slugging percentage.
Los Angeles ranks dead last - 30th - against left-handed pitching with a .215 BA, 30th with a .292 OBP and 28th with a .339 slugging percentage.
We’re giving the Mariners our handicapping check-mark with the sticks for Sunday.
The Seattle bullpen ranks 12th in the ML with a 3.88 ERA and 6th with a 1.21 WHIP. However, Mariners relievers had to throw 5 1/3 innings Saturday, so this unit could be shorthanded for Sunday.
The Angels pen ranks 14th in ERA at 3.94 and 19th in WHIP at 1.39.
We’ll still give Seattle the check-mark in the bullpen comparison.
The overs are 29-24 in games played at Angel Stadium this year, which are averaging 8.8 total runs per.
The unders are 7-2 in Seattle’s last nine games because while they’ve been getting some good pitching, the bats have gone a bit chilly.
The overs are 8-5-1 in Mariners-Angels games this season, which are averaging 9.6 runs per.
Free MLB Picks
Seattle is 44-26 this year against right-handed starters; Los Angeles is just 10-20 vs. left-handed starters. Plus the Mariners own our three handicapping check-marks, and they’re getting an underdog price. We’re siding with Seattle Sunday.
Editor: Get the best line on this game (+102) at Intertops.