Pirates vs. Cubs Odds & Predictions 7/25/22

by | Jul 25, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs

Date: Monday July 25th, 08:05 ET

Location: Wrigley Field

TV: Marquee Sports Network

Money Line: Pirates +122 / Cubs -145 (BetNow - They’ll give you a 100% bonus up to $500 if you use Promo Code: PREDICTEM)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Pittsburgh: JT Brubaker (2-8, 4.02)
Chicago: Keegan Thompson (7-4, 3.54)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Cal Mitchell RF
Jake Marisnick CF
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Oneil Cruz SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jason Delay C
Josh VanMeter 1B
Kevin Newman 2B
Ben Gamel RF
JT Brubaker P

Cubs Projected Lineup

Frank Schwindel 1B
Yan Gomes C
Nico Hoerner SS
Patrick Wisdom 3B
Seiya Suzuki RF
Christopher Morel 2B
Ian Happ LF
Rafael Ortega CF
Willson Contreras C
Keegan Thompson P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-56-0 SU / OU 39-50-7 / Run Line W/L 49-47-0
Chicago Cubs: 38-57-0 SU / OU 44-45-6 / Run Line W/L 49-46-0

The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, July 25th at Wrigley Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Chicago as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Marlins (6-5), the Pirates will look to get back in the win column. In the loss, Pittsburgh’s pitchers gave up 6 runs on 11 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 6 hits. Pittsburgh’s loss came as the underdog, getting 148.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 7.0 runs, the Pirates and Marlins combined to go over this total. Games involving the Pirates have stayed below the over-under line more than half of the time, at 39-50-7.

The Pirates will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -4. On offense, Pittsburgh’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 8-16-7.

The Cubs are coming off a tight 4-3 win over the Phillies. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 3 runs on 9 hits. The Cubs’ offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 7 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 100.0 on the moneyline, the Cubs still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 65 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 40.0%. With this result, the Cubs and Phillies combined to fall below the over-under line of 10.0 runs. Now, Chicago had an over-under record of 44-45-6.

In their last 5 games, the Cubs have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +18 (last 5). The Cubs’ offense has elevated their play over their last 5 games, averaging 6.2 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.33. Chicago has a below .500 series record of just 10-15-5.

Pitching Matchup

JT Brubaker gets the start for the Pirates, with an overall record of 2-8. So far, Brubaker has put together an ERA of 4.02. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.22 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.249. So far, Brubaker has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.86 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, JT Brubaker has a strong strikeout percentage of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 5.39. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Brubaker is averaging 3.83 free passes per outing.

In today’s game, Chicago turns to starter Keegan Thompson. For the year, he has a record of 7-4. Thompson gets the start with an ERA of 3.54. On average, he has lasted 4.05 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.245. Throughout the season, Thompson has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 0.78 per 9 innings. Overall, Keegan Thompson has struck out 22.0% of the batters he has faced. For the season, he is averaging 3.75 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Thompson, as he is giving up 3.21 walks per outing.

Pittsburgh vs Chicago History

Today’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs will be their 14th meeting of the season. Pittsburgh has the lead in the series at 8-5. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-8. The average run total in these games is 8.84 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 5.69 runs. Chicago won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 14 wins to 5. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-9. Last year, the Pirates and Cubs averaged 8.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.53 runs per contest.

More Picks: Houston at Oakland Betting Analysis 7/25/22

Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Prediction

Leading into Monday’s National League Central showdown between Chicago and Pittsburgh, the Cubs are the favorite on the moneyline. However, I recommend taking the Pirates to come away with a win in game 1 of this series. Pittsburgh starter JT Brubaker has been pitching better than his stats suggest and has been racking up the strikeouts of late. Look for Chicago to struggle against the right-hander. I like Pittsburgh on the moneyline.

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