Rangers vs. Astros Game 7 Pick: Can a home team win?

by | Oct 23, 2023 | mlb

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Date: Monday, October 23rd, 8:03 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: FOX
Money Line: Rangers +107/Astros -126
Total Line: 9

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Houston Astros and the Rangers on Monday, October 23rd at Minute Maid Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
TEX +107 +1.5 O 9 (-110)
HOU -126 -1.5 U 9 (-109)

Rangers vs. Astros Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
Marcus Semien 1 2B
Corey Seager 2 SS
Mitch Garver 3 DH
Adolis García 4 RF
Evan Carter 5 LF
Jonah Heim 6 C
Nathaniel Lowe 7 1B
Josh Jung 8 3B
Leody Taveras 9 CF
Max Scherzer SP


Batting Order Position
Jose Altuve 1 2B
Alex Bregman 2 3B
Yordan Alvarez 3 DH
Kyle Tucker 4 RF
José Abreu 5 1B
Michael Brantley 6 LF
Chas McCormick 7 CF
Jeremy Peña 8 SS
Martín Maldonado 9 C
Cristian Javier SP


Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Texas Rangers: 90-72 SU / OU 90-75 / Runline 96-77
Houston Astros: 90-72 SU / OU 91-75 / Runline 87-85

The Rangers head into today’s game in first place in the AL West on a record of 90-72. Over their last ten games, they have put together an above .500 record of 7-3. At home, Texas is 50-31 and 40-41 on the road. Their overall series record comes in at 32-20-2.

  • The Rangers have covered the runline in 55.5% of their games and have an average run margin of 1.1
  • The Rangers have been favored in 65.3% of their games and have runline records of 46-39 and 50-38 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 55% of the Rangers’ 162 games at 90-75.

On a record of 90-72, the Astros are tied for first place in the AL West. Against the Rangers, they will be seeking their 5th straight win. On the road, they have a record of 51-30 while going 39-42 at home. Houston’s overall series record is 29-19-5.

  • The Astros have covered the runline in 50.6% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.8
  • The Astros have been favored in 72.1% of their games and have runline records of 34-52 and 53-33 at home and on the road, respectively
  • The over has hit in 55% of the Astros’ 162 games at 91-75.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Max Scherzer 28 27 152 13-6 3.77 1.12 28


With an overall record of 13-6, Max Scherzer gets the start for Texas. His ERA stands at 3.77 with a K/9 figure of 10.26 after making 28 appearances. Additionally, he has a FIP of 4.32 and an OBP of .277.

After a loss against the Astros, Max Scherzer is coming off a performance where he gave up five runs on five hits over four innings.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Cristian Javier 33 31 162 10-5 4.56 1.26 25


Houston is looking to Cristian Javier to deliver yet another impressive performance, given he has earned a win in three consecutive games. So far he has an ERA of 4.56 and record of 10-5. Throughout the season, he has accumulated 159 strikeouts and has a batting average allowed of .226. In terms of slugging percentage, teams have SLG of .409 vs. Javier.

Cristian Javier’s most recent appearance ended with him allowing two runs allowed on three hits to the Rangers. For the game, Javier picked up the win as the Astros won by a score of 8-5.

Rangers vs. Astros Offense Outlook

The Rangers are proving to be one of the best home run hitting teams in baseball this season, having hit 233 home runs (3rd). Overall, they are averaging 5.4 runs per game and have a collective batting average of .263. The team’s slugging percentage is .406 on the road and .484 at home.

Texas Rangers Team Hitting Stats

Team Games Runs HR BA OBP SLG
Rangers 173 5.4 (3rd) 233 (3rd) .263 (2nd) .337 (3rd) .337 (3rd)


Texas Rangers Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Adolis García .321 5 3 3 .908
Josh Jung .188 3 3 2 .562
Mitch Garver .271 4 3 1 .521
Nathaniel Lowe .333 5 3 1 .646
Corey Seager .175 3 3 1 .412


The Astros have played 172 games and are currently ranked 5th in the league, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Houston ranks 6th in home runs, (222) and have a collective batting average of .259, including .259 on the road and .243 at home.

Houston Astros Top Hitters vs. Righties

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Alex Bregman .283 18 .470 .372
Kyle Tucker .275 17 .490 .362
Jeremy Peña .240 7 .350 .291
Mauricio Dubón .265 7 .389 .294
José Abreu .239 10 .359 .289


Houston Astros Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Jose Altuve .438 8 7 2 .863
José Abreu .321 5 3 1 .621
Yordan Alvarez .517 8 2 0 .517
Alex Bregman .146 2 3 1 .500
Kyle Tucker .292 3 2 0 .500


Free MLB Pick

It all comes down to game seven in the ALCS, and the Astros have the slight edge on the moneyline. However, I like the Rangers to come through and push their way to the World Series. Look for Max Scherzer to put together an excellent outing. My bet is on Texas on the moneyline.

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