Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Trends, Free Pick 8/30/22

by | Last updated Aug 30, 2022 | mlb

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins
Date: Tuesday August 30th, 06:40 ET
Location: LoanDepot Park
TV: Bally Sports Florida
Money Line: Rays -230 / Marlins +190
Total Line: 6.5


Tampa Bay: Shane McClanahan (11-5, 2.2)
Miami: Jesús Luzardo (3-5, 3.34)

Rays Projected Lineup

Manuel Margot RF
Taylor Walls SS
Yu Chang 2B
Randy Arozarena LF
Francisco Mejía C
Yandy Díaz 3B
Jose Siri CF
Isaac Paredes 2B
Harold Ramirez 1B
Shane McClanahan P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Peyton Burdick RF
Charles LeBlanc 1B
J.J. Bleday CF
Brian Anderson RF
Nick Fortes C
Jon Berti 3B
Luke Williams 2B
Garrett Cooper 1B
Miguel Rojas SS
Jesús Luzardo P


Tampa Bay Rays: 70-57-0 SU / OU 57-59-11 / Run Line W/L 62-65-0
Miami Marlins: 55-73-0 SU / OU 54-67-7 / Run Line W/L 59-69-0

The Miami Marlins host the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday August 30th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Tampa Bay as the favorite (-230), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to pick up another big win after they defeated Boston by a score of 12-4. Boston came up with 13 hits leading to 4 runs against Tampa Bay’s pitchers. The Rays lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 17 hits, leading to 12 runs. In the matchup, Tampa Bay was favored at -110.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 89 of their games, winning at a rate of 61.0%. With the over-under line set at 8.5 runs, the Rays and Boston combined to go over this total. Even with this game going over the total, Tampa Bay still has an over-under record of just 57-59-11.

The Rays come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +9. Offensively, the team has put up 33 runs in their last 5 games. Tampa Bay’s season average comes in at 4.26 (18th. So far, Tampa Bay has won over half of their 40 series played, going 20-17-3.

The Marlins will look to bounce back from a tight 3-2 loss to the Dodgers. For the game, the pitching staff held the Dodgers to 3 runs on 7 hits. With their 7 hits, the Marlins could only plate 2 runners. This loss came as no surprise, as Miami came into the game as the underdog, getting 145.0. In their 68 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 28.99%. Combined, the Marlins and Dodgers’ run total fell below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 54-67-7.

The Marlins come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -12. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.6 runs over their last 5 game. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 12-24-5.

Pitching Matchup

Shane McClanahan gets the start for the Rays, with an overall record of 11-5. Through 24 appearances, McClanahan has an ERA of just 2.2 while averaging 6.13 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the left-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.185. Per 9 innings pitched, McClanahan is averaging 0.92 home runs allowed. Per game, Shane McClanahan is averaging 7.58, on a strikeout percentage of 33.0%. Command has been a problem for McClanahan, as he is giving up 1.83 walks per outing.

In today’s game, Miami turns to starter Jesús Luzardo. For the year, he has a record of 3-5. In his previous outings, Luzardo has lasted an average of 5.37 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.34. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.171 against the right-hander. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.76 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On average, he averages 6.27 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.49 walks per outing.

Tampa Bay vs Miami History

For the season, the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins will be playing their 3rd game of the season. Tampa Bay has the lead in the series at 2-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-1. The average run total in these games is 8.83 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.5 runs. Going back to last year, Tampa Bay won the season series, 5 games to 1. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 3-3, with the average run total being 8.83 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.5 runs per contest.

More Picks: Get our Oakland at Washington Pick 8/30/22

Betting Trends

  • Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
  • Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami’s last 14 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
  • The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Miami’s last 25 games

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Prediction

Leading into today’s matchup between Tampa Bay and Miami, the over-under line is set at 6.5 runs. Even though Jesus Luzardo has pitched well for the Marlins, he has not gotten any run support, as the team has lost each of his last 3 starts. However, just 1 of these games has surpassed a run total of 7 runs. With Shane McClanahan on the mound for Tampa Bay, I expect a low-scoring game. Look for this game to remain below 6.5 runs.

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