Red Sox vs. Braves Analysis & Best Bet

by | May 10, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Tuesday, May 10th, 07:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Bally Sports Southeast

Money Line: Red Sox +113 / Braves -135

Total Line: 8.0

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STARTING PITCHING

Boston: Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 1.25)
Atlanta: Kyle Wright (3-1, 1.74)

Red Sox Projected Lineup

1B Franchy Cordero
C Christian Vázquez
LF Alex Verdugo
CF Enrique Hernández
RF Jackie Bradley Jr.
SS Xander Bogaerts
LF J.D. Martinez
2B Trevor Story
3B Rafael Devers

Braves Projected Lineup

CF Adam Duvall
RF Travis Demeritte
2B Ozzie Albies
C Travis d’Arnaud
SS Dansby Swanson
3B Austin Riley
LF Marcell Ozuna
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
1B Matt Olson

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Boston Red Sox: 10-19-0 SU / OU 9-20-0 / Run Line W/L 14-15-0
Atlanta Braves: 14-16-0 SU / OU 16-13-1 / Run Line W/L 14-16-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, May 10th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the White Sox (3-2), the Red Sox will look to get back in the win column. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the White Sox to just 3 runs on 6 hits. On offense, the Red Sox finished with 9 hits. The Red Sox suffered the loss, despite being favored at -170.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 15 of their games, winning at a rate of 40.0%. Combined, the Red Sox and White Sox fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. So far, Boston has been a good candidate to fall below the betting lines, as their over-under record sits at just 9-20-0.

Over the Red Sox’s last 5 contests, they have a record of just 0-5. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -18. On offense, Boston’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Boston’s overall series record is just 1-7-1.

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a big win over the Brewers by a score of 9-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Brewers to 2 runs on 4 hits. With their 9 hits, the Braves plated 9 runners. Atlanta picked up the win while being favored at -135.0. So far, the team has won 48.0% of the games in which they were favored. In terms of the over-under, the Braves and Brewers combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. For the season, the team’s OU record is (16-13-1).

In their last 5 games, the Braves have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 9. Offensively, Atlanta’s lineup has been steady 4.8 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per game average of 4.07. Atlanta has a below .500 series record of just 2-4-3.

Pitching Matchup

For the Red Sox, Garrett Whitlock gets the start. Heading into action, he has a record of 1-1. Currently, Whitlock has a strong ERA of just 1.25 while pitching an average of 3.03 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.143 against him. Not only does Whitlock have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.85 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Garrett Whitlock has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 36.0%, while averaging 4.14 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.66 walks per contest.

Atlanta will send Kyle Wright to the mound with a record of 3-1. Heading into his matchup vs Boston, Wright has a strong ERA, sitting at just 1.74. This has come while averaging 6.2 innings per start. On the season, opposing team’s have put together a batting average of 0.209 against Wright. In addition, opposing teams are hitting home runs at a below-average at a rate against him. So far, he has a HR/9 figure of just 0.29. A strength of Kyle Wright’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 31.0%. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 2.03 walks per contest.

Boston vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves will be their first meeting of the season. Going back to last year, Boston won the season series, 3 games to 1. In these 4 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-1, with the average scoring differential sitting at 2.5 runs. Last year, Boston and Atlanta combined to average 13.5 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 9 games when playing Boston

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves Prediction

In today’s interleague matchup between Boston and Atlanta, I recommend grabbing the Braves on the moneyline. Look for Kyle Wright to continue his excellent start to the season, against a Red Sox lineup struggling to generate offense. At -135, there is still good value in rolling with Atlanta.

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