Nolan McLean’s 42.3% curveball whiff rate is a structural problem for a Mets lineup already stripped of Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, Robert, Mauricio, and a feverish Juan Soto. The 7.5 total was set before fully accounting for how hollow New York’s order actually is tonight — and Nick Lodolo’s 7.20 ERA on the other side does nothing to push scoring upward.
Nick Lodolo vs. Nolan McLean: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Betting Preview
The headline number here is 7.5. On the surface, it looks like the sportsbooks already know this game skews low — a pitcher-friendly park, a struggling Mets offense, a Cincinnati team scoring just 4.4 runs per game on the season. But the posted line may not fully account for just how broken the Mets’ lineup actually is tonight. When you’re running out a lineup without Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco, Luis Robert Jr., and Ronny Mauricio — all on the IL — and your best hitter, Juan Soto, was scratched Sunday with a fever, the offensive ceiling doesn’t just drop. It collapses.
The pitching matchup does most of the heavy lifting in the other direction. Nolan McLean has been one of the more quietly excellent starters in the NL this season. His 3.57 ERA over 58 innings, paired with a 1.03 WHIP and 10.7 K/9, gives the Mets a genuine frontline arm capable of keeping this game in check through five or six innings. On the road side, Nick Lodolo has been everything that worries you about a volatile young lefty — a 7.20 ERA, a 1.53 WHIP, and four home runs allowed in just 15 innings. The pitching gap here is wide and the run environment tilts toward the under once you price in the lineup damage.
The Reds arrive in New York having just split a rain-shortened series with St. Louis. The Mets come in fresh off a three-game sweep at Miami where they scored just two runs — one each in the first two games — and were blanked in the series finale. Neither offense is hot. The under at -115 is a reasonable entry point for a game that has suppression written all over it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Monday, May 25, 2026 — 4:10 PM ET
- Venue: Citi Field | Park Factor: 0.97 (pitcher-friendly)
- TV: MLB.TV, Reds.TV, SNY
- Probable Starters: Nick Lodolo (CIN, 0-1, 7.20 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (NYM, 2-3, 3.57 ERA)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds +136 / New York Mets -162
- Run Line: New York Mets -1.5 (+138) / Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (-166)
- Total: 7.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Why This Number Is Close But Slightly Off
The market set this at 7.5 for defensible reasons. Citi Field plays slightly below average for run scoring, and the Mets’ season ERA of 3.84 with a 1.285 WHIP ranks among the better staffs in the NL. Books aren’t blind to injury reports either — they know New York is shorthanded. The -115 juice on the under reflects that the sharp money has already found this number.
But here’s the problem: a raw combined run projection of 8.9 was built before fully internalizing how depleted this Mets lineup is tonight. A projected 4.9 runs for New York assumes something resembling a functional roster. When Soto — their .949 OPS bat — is day-to-day with illness and was scratched yesterday, the actual run expectation for New York drops meaningfully below that figure. The lineup the Mets are running tonight — Benge, Bichette, Ewing, Vientos, Baty, Semien — is a collection of replacement-level options and fringe contributors. Their season OPS of .642 as a team is already near the bottom of the NL. Strip out Soto and that number craters further.
The market is balancing legitimate Lodolo blowup risk against McLean dominance and Mets lineup carnage. The injury side of the ledger looks underweighted, and the under at -115 still offers value despite the juice already reflecting some of that lean.
What Separates the Pitching
The gap between these two starters is substantial, and it runs in one clear direction.
McLean’s arsenal is built for a low-scoring environment. His sinker sits at 94.8 mph and generates a .259 xwOBA against — that’s elite contact suppression for a pitch he throws 35.5% of the time. The weapon that makes him genuinely dangerous in a strikeout-driven game is his curveball: 42.3% whiff rate and a microscopic .074 xwOBA against. That pitch is nearly unhittable. Against a Cincinnati lineup that has posted 475 strikeouts on the season and carries a team OPS of just .703, McLean’s profile is a perfect matchup. Elly De La Cruz (.495 xwOBA, 9.7% barrel) is the one legitimate threat in this Reds order — a right-handed bat with genuine pop. But even De La Cruz whiffs 28.3% of the time, and McLean’s combination of a sinking fastball and that devastating curve is designed to generate exactly the swing-and-miss outcomes that limit traffic.
Lodolo is operating at the opposite end of the spectrum. His sinker is generating a .558 xwOBA against — a number that suggests hitters are squaring it up regularly. His 6.6 K/9, 9 walks in 15 innings, and four home runs allowed paint the picture of a pitcher who creates traffic constantly and has no reliable put-away option. His curveball does carry a 38.6% whiff rate, which is the one weapon keeping him in games, but his changeup put-away rate sits at just 5.3%. Against the Mets’ compromised lineup, Lodolo may keep the damage contained — but the floor here is a volatile 4-5 inning outing that hands the bullpen a live game early.
Run Environment & Game Shape
Citi Field’s 0.97 park factor is modest but consistent — it’s a ground-ball pitcher’s friend and a venue that quietly suppresses scoring without the dramatic reputation of a pitcher-friendly dome. That neutral-to-suppressive environment matters most when you have a starter like McLean who generates ground balls and induces soft contact by design.
The game shape here is straightforward: McLean has the stuff and the profile to cruise through Cincinnati’s lineup for five to seven innings. The Reds’ best hitters — De La Cruz (.499 xwOBA vs. RHP), Nathaniel Lowe (.887 OPS, 8 HR), Sal Stewart (.840 OPS, 12 HR) — are legitimate, but this is not a deep lineup, and McLean’s curveball will be a recurring problem for anyone with swing-and-miss tendencies. Eugenio Suárez carries a 30.2% strikeout rate and a .308 xwOBA against right-handed pitching; he’s the kind of bat McLean can exploit at will.
On the other side, the Mets’ depleted lineup running into Lodolo’s volatility is less clean. He can generate a crooked number with his command issues and home run rate. But with the bottom half of New York’s order featuring Morabito, Taylor, and Torrens, there’s a ceiling on how much damage accumulates even if Lodolo walks the ballpark. The Mets are simply not constructed to string together multi-run innings right now.
The combined picture — McLean holding the Reds to two or three runs, Lodolo gutting through four innings of messy but not catastrophic baseball against a threadbare Mets lineup — points toward a final score in the 3-2 or 4-3 range. That lands comfortably under 7.5.
The Pick
The under is the play here. McLean’s arsenal suppresses contact at an elite level, the Mets’ lineup is as depleted as it’s been all season, Citi Field nudges run scoring downward, and the Reds are dealing with their own rotation uncertainty at the top of the order. The -115 price is fair for what amounts to a well-supported lean, not a lock — Lodolo’s volatility and the Reds’ lineup depth are the real risks to this ticket. But the structural case for suppression is strong enough to commit 2 units at moderate confidence.
Bet: Under 7.5 — -115 — 2u — Moderate Confidence
