Reds vs. Brewers Betting Analysis & Picks 6/15/24

by | Last updated Jun 15, 2024 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Saturday, June 15th, 4:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
Money Line: Reds +111/Brewers -130
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Reds on Saturday, June 15th at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
CIN +111 +1.5 O 8.5 (-110)
MIL -130 -1.5 U 8.5 (-112)

First pitch for Saturday’s Reds vs. Brewers matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee. The Reds have won two straight and are 34-35, while the Brewers are 40-29 and Bryse Wilson is starting for them. Cincinnati is starting Andrew Abbott.

The money line odds have the Brewers at -130 compared to the Reds at +111, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs. BSWI is carrying this game on TV, and they are in first place in the NL Central, while the Reds are third.

Reds vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Player Batting Order Position
TJ Friedl 1 CF
Elly De La Cruz 2 SS
Jeimer Candelario 3 3B
Spencer Steer 4 1B
Jake Fraley 5 RF
Tyler Stephenson 6 C
Jacob Hurtubise 7 LF
Jonathan India 8 2B
Will Benson 9 DH
Andrew Abbott SP

Player Batting Order Position
Joey Ortiz 1 3B
William Contreras 2 C
Christian Yelich 3 LF
Willy Adames 4 SS
Rhys Hoskins 5 1B
Gary Sánchez 6 DH
Blake Perkins 7 CF
Jackson Chourio 8 RF
Brice Turang 9 2B
Bryse Wilson SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Cincinnati Reds: 34-35 SU / OU 31-35 / Runline 37-32
Milwaukee Brewers: 40-29 SU / OU 38-29 / Runline 35-34

Cincinnati picked up a 6-5 road win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Reds had a three-run 5th inning and scored the game’s final two runs in the 9th. As for the Brewers, they scored one run in the 1st inning and added their final four runs in the 9th.

Hunter Greene started for the Reds and picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued five walks. As for the Brewers, Freddy Peralta got the start and took the loss, giving up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.

TJ Friedl and Jeimer Candelario each homered for the Reds, while William Contreras went deep for the Brewers. Friedl, Candelario, and Elly De La Cruz each had two RBIs for Cincinnati’s offense.

Reds Records & Recent Play

Cincinnati is 34-35 overall and trail the Brewers by six games in the NL Central. The Reds are also 8-6 against other teams in the division. So far, they have won two straight games, and they are currently on a five-game winning streak on the road.

As the road underdog, the Reds are 10-15 this year, and they are an even 16-16 as the road overall. Cincinnati has been slightly better than .500 at home, coming in with an 18-19 mark. This season, they have an 8-12-2 series record, but they have won two straight series on the road.

When betting the run line, the Reds have been a much better bet on the road than at home, going 22-10 on the run line away from Cincinnati. Their average run differential on the road is +0.8 runs per game, compared to -0.3 runs per game at home. Cincinnati has covered the run line in five straight road games and is 15-16 against the run line as the favorite this season.

The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the Milwaukee Brewers, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. The Reds have played 66 games this season, and their average combined run total has been 8.5 runs per game. Their overall over/under record is 31-35, and when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, they are 5-6. In total, 35 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 50.7% of their games this season.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

With a record of 40-29, the Brewers lead the NL Central by 5.5 games over the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 16-9 against other teams in the NL Central. The Brewers are looking to bounce back today, as they dropped the first game of the series vs. the Reds.

At home, the Brewers have gone 20-12 this season, and they are just over .500 at 20-17 on the road. As the home favorite, the Brewers have put together a record of 15-7 this year, and they are 21-13 overall as the favorite. Their series record is 13-7-2, and they have won two straight series.

When betting the run line, the Brewers have been a better play on the road this season, going 21-16 compared to 14-18 at home. They have also been a better play as the underdog, going 23-12 compared to 12-22 as the favorite. Their average run differential this season is +0.9 runs per game.

When the Milwaukee Brewers play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season. They have an over/under record of 38-29 on the year, and their games have averaged an over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 18-13. So far this season, 13% of their games have had an over/under line set at 8.5 runs, while 42% of their games have had lower lines.

Pitching Matchup

Left-hander Andrew Abbott gets the start for the Reds today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 5-5 to go along with a 3.28 ERA. In his 13 appearances, Abbott has turned in five quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Abbott picked up the win, going five innings and giving up just one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight outings. So far, he has been much better on the road, coming in with a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.4 compared to 2-3 with a 3.35 ERA at home.

Through 16 appearances, Bryse Wilson has made eight starts for the Brewers. He has a record of 3-3 and an ERA of 4.19. Wilson’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.28. In his 58 innings of work, Wilson has allowed a total of nine home runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Wilson has turned in two quality starts this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 6.83 strikeouts and 3.41 walks. Wilson’s last outing came on June 9th, where he took the loss after giving up seven earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. He has lost each of his last two outings.

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Reds vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

Heading into today’s game, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, the Reds are batting just .227, but they do have a good team walk rate and are 15th in the league in home runs.

Jeimer Candelario has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/33 with five homers and 10 RBIs over his last eight games. For the season, he is batting .247 with 12 homers and 33 RBIs. Spencer Steer is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 14th in the league with 41 RBIs.

William Contreras has been on a tear of late for the Brewers, as he comes into the game on an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .307 for the season. He also leads the team with 48 RBIs and is 3rd on the team with nine homers. Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins are the team’s leaders in homers, with 11 and 10, respectively, but Adames has struggled of late, hitting just .152 over his last 10 games.

As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.3 runs per game. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run-hitting clubs and have the league’s top BABIP, at .31. Milwaukee also comes into the game with the 4th fewest strikeouts in the league.

Free Reds vs. Brewers MLB Pick

The Brewers nearly pulled off a 9th-inning comeback last night, but throughout the game, they had a lot of help from the Red’s defense, who had five errors. With Andrew Abbott on the mound vs. Bryse Wilson, I like the Reds to pick up another win in game two. My pick is to take Cincinnatti at +111.

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