Royals vs. Yankees Pick: Bet the Runline

by | Last updated Jul 30, 2022 | mlb

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
Date: Saturday July 30th, 02:05 ET
Location: Yankee Stadium
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City
Money Line: Royals +220 / Yankees -270
Total Line: 8.5


Kansas City: Jonathan Heasley (1-5, 5.50 ERA)
New York: Nestor Cortes (8-3, 2.48)

Royals Projected Lineup

MJ Melendez C
Michael A. Taylor CF
Emmanuel Rivera 3B
Kyle Isbel LF
Hunter Dozier RF
Nick Pratto 1B
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
Whit Merrifield 2B
Bobby Witt Jr. SS
Jonathan Heasley P

Yankees Projected Lineup

Josh Donaldson 3B
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Andrew Benintendi LF
Aaron Hicks CF
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Gleyber Torres 2B
DJ LeMahieu 3B
Aaron Judge CF
Nestor Cortes P


Kansas City Royals: 39-61-0 SU / OU 47-49-4 / Run Line W/L 45-55-0
New York Yankees: 68-33-0 SU / OU 50-49-2 / Run Line W/L 49-52-0

The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals on Saturday, July 30th at Yankee Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-270), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Royals come into this matchup having suffered a 6 run loss to the Yankees (11-5). On their way to giving up 11 runs, the Royals staff allowed 11 hits. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 9 hits. The loss came as Kansas City was the betting underdog, getting 320.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 8.5 runs, the Royals and Yankees combined to go over this total. On the season, Kansas City’s over-under record is 47-49-4.

In their last 5 games, the Royals are below .500, at 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -10. On offense, Kansas City’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 2.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Kansas City’s overall series record is just 9-20-3.

The New York Yankees will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Royals by 6 runs (11-5). New York’s pitching staff gave up 9 hits, leading to 5 Royals runs. At the plate, the Yankees scored 11 times on 11 hits. In the game, New York was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -400.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 93 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. The Yankees and Royals went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 50-49-2.

Across their last 5 contests, the Yankees are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +9. New York has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.6 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 5.32. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 23-6-5.

Pitching Matchup

The Kansas City Royals will be looking for starter Jonathan Heasley to help them pull off the upset. However, he has a record of just 1-5 on a 5.50 ERA. In his last outing Heasley didn’t make it past the 2nd inning, as he was tagged for 5 earned runs on 6 hits. In his 11 appearances, the right-hander has given up 9 home runs.

In today’s game, New York turns to starter Nestor Cortes. For the year, he has a record of 8-3. Heading into the game, Cortes has appeared in 18 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.48. On average, he pitches 5.62 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.211. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Cortes is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.16 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Nestor Cortes has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. This has led to an average of 5.89 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.95 walks per outing.

Kansas City vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees will be their 6th meeting of the season. Currently, New York is winning the season series 5-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-2. The average run total in these games is 10.67 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.4 runs. New York won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 4 wins to 2. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 4-1, with the average run total being 10.67 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.0 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games
  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
  • NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
  • NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s American League matchup between Kansas City and New York, the Yankees are the favorite to come away with the win. With Nestor Cortes on the mound vs Jonathan Heasley, there is no reason to expect this one to play out as expected. I recommend taking the Yankees to cover the runline.

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