Mariners vs. Astros Odds & Moneyline Pick

by | Last updated Jul 30, 2022 | mlb

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
Date: Saturday July 30th, 07:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: ATT SportsNet-SW
Money Line: Mariners +156 / Astros -190
Total Line: 8.0
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Seattle: Chris Flexen (7-8, 3.75)
Houston: Framber Valdez (9-4, 2.74)

Mariners Projected Lineup

Kyle Lewis RF
Cal Raleigh C
Eugenio Suárez 3B
Jesse Winker LF
Adam Frazier 2B
J.P. Crawford SS
Carlos Santana 1B
Julio Rodriguez CF
Ty France 1B
Chris Flexen P

Astros Projected Lineup

Aledmys Díaz SS
Jake Meyers CF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Framber Valdez P


Seattle Mariners: 54-47-0 SU / OU 47-52-2 / Run Line W/L 50-51-0
Houston Astros: 66-35-0 SU / OU 37-61-3 / Run Line W/L 53-48-0

The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners on Saturday, July 30th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-190), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Mariners will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Astros by the score of 11-1. On their way to giving up 11 runs, the Mariners staff allowed 15 hits. On offense, the Mariners finished with 1 run on 6 hits. Seattle’s loss came as the underdog, getting 165.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.0 runs. The Mariners now have an over-under record of 47-52-2.

The Mariners are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Despite their recent success, their last 5 run margin comes in at -8. Seattle has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.2 runs per game compared to their season average of 4.05. So far, Seattle has won over half of their 32 series played, going 17-14-1.

The Houston Astros are coming off a big win over the Mariners by a score of 11-1. For the game, the pitching staff held the Mariners to 1 run on 6 hits. Offensively, they finished with 11 runs on 15 hits. Heading into action, Houston was the favorite at -200.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 85 games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Astros and Mariners combined to surpass the line of 7.0 runs. Against the run total, Houston is just 37-61-3.

The Astros come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Even though Houston has notched just 2 in their last 5 games, they still have a positive run differential in this stretch (+6). Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 5.0 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.50. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 22-10-2.

Pitching Matchup

Chris Flexen gets the start for the Mariners, with an overall record of 7-8. To date, Flexen has an ERA of 3.75 while lasting an average of 5.54 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.262. This season, Flexen has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 1.11 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Chris Flexen has a strong strikeout percentage of 16.0%, including a per game average of 3.95. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Flexen is averaging 3.15 free passes per outing.

Houston will roll with Framber Valdez (9-4) as their starter. Heading into the game, Valdez has appeared in 19 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.74. On average, he pitches 6.38 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.212 against him. This year Valdez is allowing just 0.45 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Framber Valdez is averaging 5.79, on a strikeout percentage of 22.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.25 walks per outing.

Seattle vs Houston History

Today’s matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will be their 18th meeting of the season. Currently, Houston is winning the season series 11-6. The over-under record in this series sits at 7-10. The average run total in these games is 9.37 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.24 runs. Houston won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 11 wins to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 11-7, with the average run total being 9.37 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.79 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
  • Seattle is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston’s last 7 games at home
  • Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s American League matchup between Seattle and Houston, the Astros are the favorite to pick up another win. However, Chris Flexen comes into the game pitching well and hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in 5 straight starts. I recommend taking the Mariners to pull off the upset.

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