San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays ML Pick & Predictions

by | Last updated Apr 21, 2024 | mlb

Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
Date: Sunday, April 21st, 4:10 ET
Location: PETCO Park
Money Line: Blue Jays +107/Padres -128
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the San Diego Padres and the Blue Jays on Sunday, April 21st at PETCO Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
TOR +107 +1.5 O 8 (-115)
SD -128 -1.5 U 8 (-105)

At 4:10 PM from PETCO Park in San Diego, we have an interleague matchup between the Blue Jays and Padres. Heading into Sunday’s game, the Blue Jays are 12-9, while the Padres are just below .500 at 11-12. Joe Musgrove is starting for the Padres, and he is facing off against Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays.

San Diego comes into this one as the favorite, with money line odds of -128, and the over/under line is at 8 runs. If you’re looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by SNET.

Blue Jays vs. Padres Projected Lineup

Player Batting Order Position
George Springer 1 RF
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2 1B
Bo Bichette 3 SS
Justin Turner 4 DH
Cavan Biggio 5 2B
Alejandro Kirk 6 C
Daulton Varsho 7 LF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 8 3B
Kevin Kiermaier 9 CF
Chris Bassitt SP

Player Batting Order Position
Xander Bogaerts 1 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2 RF
Jake Cronenworth 3 1B
Manny Machado 4 DH
Jurickson Profar 5 LF
Ha-Seong Kim 6 SS
Luis Campusano 7 C
Jackson Merrill 8 CF
Tyler Wade 9 3B
Joe Musgrove SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Toronto Blue Jays: 12-9 SU / OU 9-11 / Runline 12-9
San Diego Padres: 11-12 SU / OU 11-11 / Runline 12-11

Toronto picked up a 5-2 road win over the Padres in the most recent game of this series. The Blue Jays had a huge 1st inning, scoring three of their five runs. As for the Padres, they scored their only two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Blue Jays were favored at -124 on the money line.

The Blue Jays got to Padres starter Randy Vásquez, who gave up five earned runs in just five innings of work and took the loss. As for the Blue Jays, José Berríos pitched well, going six innings and striking out six without giving up a run.

Daulton Varsho hit the game’s only home run while going 3/4 with three RBIs and two runs scored. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also had a two-hit game for Toronto.

Blue Jays Records & Recent Play

Toronto’s Blue Jays are currently on a two-game winning streak, taking the first two games of their series with the Padres. In the AL East, they are two games behind the Yankees and are in 3rd place. So far, they have gone 5-5 against the division.

At home, the Blue Jays have been good, putting together a record of 6-3. And they have been equally as good on the road, as they are one game above .500 at 6-5. Toronto has an overall record of 12-9.

When the Blue Jays have won games this season, they have done so by an average of 3.2 runs per game. In their losses, they have been outscored by an average of 5.4 runs per game. Toronto is 12-9 against the run line this season, including a 7-5 mark on the road. They are 8-4 against the run line as the favorite and 4-5 as the underdog.

Today’s over/under line of eight runs for the Blue Jays-Padres game is right in line with Toronto’s season average of 8 runs per game. The Blue Jays have gone over the total in 9 of their 20 games this season, but they have gone under in each of their last two games. The Blue Jays have played 10 games with an over/under line set at eight runs, going 4-3-1 in those games.

Padres Records & Recent Play

After taking their series opener vs the Blue Jays, the Padres dropped the final two games of the series and head into today’s game with a record of 11-12. In the NL West, they are just one game behind the Dodgers for the division lead. So far, the Padres have been both the favorite and the underdog 12 times, and their overall series record is 4-3-1.

At home, the Padres are 5-8 this season and 6-4 on the road. San Diego had a two-game winning streak as the favorite before dropping their last game in which they were favored. At home, they are 5-5 when favored this season.

The Padres have been a solid run line bet this season, going 12-11 overall. They have been especially good on the road, going 9-1 against the run line. They have struggled at home, going just 3-10 against the run line. Their average run margin this season is +0.2 runs per game, but they have been outscored by an average of -0.6 runs per game at home.

San Diego Padres games have had an average of 9.5 runs scored per game this season, but their over/under record is just 11-11. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Padres have gone 1-4-1, and their games have averaged exactly 8 runs per game this season.

Pitching Matchup

Chris Bassitt has started the season with a pair of wins, and he’ll be looking to make it three in a row when he takes on the Padres. He’s been solid in his first two starts, going 6 2/3 innings in his first start and 6 1/3 in his last outing. Bassitt has 13 strikeouts in 13 innings pitched, but he has given up a pair of home runs.

Joe Musgrove and the Padres will be taking on the Blue Jays at home. Musgrove has started the season with a 2-1 record, and in his last start, he went 6 innings and struck out 7 but did give up 3 earned runs in a win over the Brewers. This will be his 3rd start of the season, and he has yet to record a quality start, as he has gone six innings in each of his first two outings.

Blue Jays vs. Padres Offense Outlook

Our player projections for the Blue Jays’ offense today are favoring Bo Bichette to have a big game at the plate. Bichette has the 2nd highest total hits projection in the league today, and he also has the 3rd best odds on the team to hit a home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is our top choice to go deep for the Blue Jays, as he has the best odds on the team and the 9th best odds in the league today. George Springer is 2nd on the team in terms of total hits, and his odds to hit a home run are 9th best in the league today.

Our player projections for the Padres today have Xander Bogaerts leading the team in total hits, with his total being the 22nd highest in the league for today. Manny Machado is our top projected player to hit a home run for the Padres, with his odds being 11th best in the league for today. Fernando Tatis Jr. is right behind him in terms of home run odds, and Luis Campusano has the 2nd best odds on the team to hit a home run.

Free Blue Jays vs. Padres MLB Pick

Our prediction for today’s Blue Jays vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -128. We have the final score at 6-5 in favor of the Padres, and with the payout for a Blue Jays win at +107, we see the better value on the Padres to get the win at home.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Joe Musgrove finishing with five strikeouts, which is good for 15th among starters. As for Chris Bassitt, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which has him at 14th among starters.

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