Twins vs. Padres Picks & Predictions 7/30/22

by | Last updated Jul 30, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres

Date: Saturday July 30th, 07:15 ET

Location: Petco Park


Money Line: Twins +113 / Padres -135 (BetOnline – Check out their 500K NFL Handicapping Contest! A full season of fun for cheap!)

Total Line: 7.5


Minnesota: Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.52)
San Diego: Joe Musgrove (8-3, 2.63)

Twins Projected Lineup

Jose Miranda 3B
Gio Urshela SS
Jorge Polanco 2B
Alex Kirilloff RF
Max Kepler RF
Gary Sánchez C
Byron Buxton CF
Luis Arraez 2B
Carlos Correa SS
Sonny Gray P

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Nomar Mazara RF
Jorge Alfaro C
Eric Hosmer 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 1B
Joe Musgrove P


Minnesota Twins: 52-47-0 SU / OU 48-44-7 / Run Line W/L 44-55-0
San Diego Padres: 56-45-0 SU / OU 46-52-3 / Run Line W/L 48-53-0

The San Diego Padres host the Minnesota Twins on Saturday July 30th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:15 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 7.5.

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The Twins come into this matchup having suffered a 9 run loss to the Padres (10-1). In the loss, Minnesota’s pitchers gave up 10 runs on 9 hits. With their 5 hits, the Twins could only muster 1 run. The loss came as Minnesota was the betting underdog, getting 120.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.5 runs. Minnesota has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (48-44-7).

Over the Twin’s last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -4. Compared to their overall average of 4.54 runs per game, the team’s offense is playing well. Over their last 5 contests, they have bumped this figure up to 5.6. So far, Minnesota has won over half of their 32 series played, going 15-12-5.

In their last game, the San Diego Padres picked up a 9 run win over the Twins by a score of 10-1. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 1 run on 5 hits. In the victory, the Padres came up with 9 hits and 10 runs. San Diego picked up the win while being favored at -130.0. So far, the team has won 55% of the games in which they were favored. In terms of the over-under, the Padres and Twins combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. Against the run total, San Diego is just 46-52-3.

In their last 5 contests, the Padres have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of -1. Their recent record comes while the offense has picked up its play, averaging 5.6 runs over their last 5 game, compared to their overall figure of 4.38. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 16-11-5.

Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send Sonny Gray to the mound with an overall record of 5-3. To date, Gray has an ERA of 3.52 while lasting an average of 4.93 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.224 against Gray. Home runs have not been an issue for Gray, as he is giving up just 0.78 HR/9. In terms of strikeouts, Sonny Gray has a strong strikeout percentage of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 4.57. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.35 walks per contest.

San Diego will roll with Joe Musgrove (8-3) as their starter. Currently, Musgrove has a strong ERA of just 2.63 while pitching an average of 6.42 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.207 against him. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.82 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Joe Musgrove has a strong K% of 24.0%, including a per game average of 6.24. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.06 walks per outing.

Minnesota vs San Diego History

Today’s matchup between the Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres will be their 2nd meeting of the season. Currently, San Diego is winning the season series 1-0.

More Picks: Phillies at Pirates Recommended Moneyline Bet for 7/30/22

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 7 games when playing Minnesota

Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s interleague matchup between Minnesota and San Diego and Minnesota, the Padres are the favorite to come away with the win. Look for Joe Musgrove to put together a quality outing and for the Padres lineup to have a good performance at the plate vs Sonny Gray. I like San Diego on the moneyline.

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