San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers Pick

by | Jun 17, 2019 | mlb

San Francisco Giants (30-39) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (48-24), 6/17/19
Time: 10:10 pm ET Monday, June 17
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Tyler Beede (0-2, 8.06 ERA, 2.06 WHIP) vs. Kenta Maeda (7-3, 3.89, 1.09)
TV: ESPN, NBCS Bay Area, SportsNet LA

Moneyline: Dodgers -250/Giants +230
Over/Under: 8.5

First place in the NL West meets last place when the Dodgers and Giants commence a four-game rivalry series at Chavez Ravine Monday night. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened LA and Maeda at around -245 over San Francisco and Beede, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped even that line to -250.

The Dodgers could also be found at around -130, or better with a dime line, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

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Giants vs. Dodgers Set-Up

San Francisco just took two of three games from Milwaukee over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday 5-3. Just before that the Giants swept a two-game series at home from San Diego. So San Francisco is 4-1 over its last five games.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, just took three of four games at home from the Cubs over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series finale 3-2. The Dodgers are now a ML-best 28-8 at home this season.

At 48-24 overall Los Angeles leads the NL West by 10.5 games over both Colorado and Arizona, and it’s six games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League.

The Giants, at 30-39, are 16.5 games back of the Dodgers in the divisional race and eight games back of Philadelphia and the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Los Angeles leads the season series with San Francisco five games to four.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Maeda is 5/13 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last four. Last Tuesday he gave up five runs on three hits and three walks over 4 1/3 innings of a 5-3 loss to the Angels. And over his last four starts he’s allowed 11 runs and 13 hits, including five homers, through 20 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 7-6 with Maeda this season, but 0-2 over his last two starts.

Over his last three starts against the Giants, two last year and one back in April of this season, Maeda gave up four runs and 17 hits through 16 innings. Los Angeles lost two of those three games.

Beede is just one-for-four on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last two. Last Tuesday he gave up four runs and five hits through 4 2/3 innings against the Padres, although San Francisco won that game 6-5. And just before that he gave up six runs – five earned – and five hits through five frames of a 7-0 loss to the Mets.

The Giants are 3-1 with Beede, but he can’t take much of the credit for that.

This will be Beede’s first-ever start against Los Angeles, and sometimes that can give a pitcher an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Monday’s Batting Splits

  • San Francisco is batting just .226/.294/.384 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the worst in Baseball in this split.
  • Los Angeles is batting .266/.347/.475 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

  • The Giants bullpen owns a 3.75 ERA this season and a 1.22 WHIP. Also, closer Will Smith is a perfect 18/18 on save conversions.
  • The Dodgers pen owns a 4.25 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Also, closer Kenley Jansen is 21/24 on save conversions.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 34-31 in Giants games this season.
  • Unders are 35-34 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 17-16 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.
  • Unders are 5-4 in Giants-Dodgers games this season.
  • Totals are split 8-8 in games started by Maeda and Beede this season.

Free MLB Pick

LA owns the edge in the pitching match-up mainly because Maeda is great at home, and it also owns an edge with the sticks. But the line on this game is severely inflated. So we’ll take a chance and play the Dodgers against the run line for our free MLB pick for Monday.