Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Expert Pick 8/19/23

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
Date: Saturday, August 19th, 7:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: MLBN
Money Line: Mariners +127/Astros -151
Total Line: 8

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Houston Astros and the Mariners on Saturday, August 19th at Minute Maid Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Mariners vs. Astros Projected Lineup

	Batting Order	Position
Julio Rodríguez	1	CF
Eugenio Suárez	2	3B
Ty France	3	1B
Teoscar Hernández	4	RF
Cal Raleigh	5	C
Dominic Canzone	6	DH
Sam Haggerty	7	LF
Dylan Moore	8	SS
Jose Caballero	9	2B
Logan Gilbert	–	SP




	Batting Order	Position
Jose Altuve	1	2B
Alex Bregman	2	3B
Yordan Alvarez	3	LF
Kyle Tucker	4	RF
Yainer Diaz	5	DH
Jon Singleton	6	1B
Chas McCormick	7	CF
Jeremy Peña	8	SS
Martín Maldonado	9	C
Framber Valdez	–	SP




Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

Seattle Mariners: 67-55 SU / OU 60-61 / Runline 62-60
Houston Astros: 70-53 SU / OU 60-60 / Runline 62-61

On a record of 67-55, the Mariners are 3rd in the AL West. Currently, they are five games out of the division lead. Against the Astros, they will be seeking their 5th straight win. On the road, they have a record of 33-27 while going 34-28 at home. Seattle’s overall series record is 19-17-2.

• The Mariners have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of 0.5.
• The Mariners have been favored in 67.2% of their games and have runline records of 26-36 and 36-24 at home and on the road, respectively
• Through 122 games, the over has hit in half of the Mariners’ games at 60-61.

With an overall record of 70-53, the Astros are in 2nd place in the AL West, trailing by 2.5 games. Over their last ten games, they are above .500 at 6-4. On the road, the Astros have a mark of 37-26 while going 33-27 at home. Their overall series mark stands at 22-13-3.

• The Astros have covered the runline in 50.4% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.7
• The Astros have been favored in 71.5% of their games and have runline records of 27-33 and 35-28 at home and on the road, respectively
• Through 123 games, the over has hit in half of the Astros’ games at 60-60.

Pitching Matchup

 

Across 24 appearances, Logan Gilbert has a slugging percentage allowed of .383 and enters with a WHIP of 1.06. His overall record is 10-5 on an ERA of 3.80. For the season, he has a total of 143 K’s, and is averaging 9.06 strikeouts per nine innings. Gilbert’s record on the road is 7-1 and 3-4 at home. This includes an ERA of 4.54 (road) and 4.56 (home), respectively.

In his last appearance, Logan Gilbert lasted 4 1/3 innings in the Mariners’ 7-6 loss to the Royals. Individually, Gilbert finished with a no-decision while giving up four runs on seven hits.

 

Across his 23 outings, Framber Valdez has a record of 9-8 and ERA of 3.31. One thing to note, is that he has given up a home run in each of his last two appearances. As he takes the mound, his WHIP sits at 1.08 with an OBP allowed of .274. Valdez’s strikeout to walk ratio is 148/36.

Despite Valdez’s efforts, the Astros suffered a defeat in his last outing against the Marlins, with him being charged with the loss. He gave up four runs in 7 2/3 innings of work.

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Mariners vs. Astros Offense Outlook

The Mariners have played 122 games so far and have an average of 4.6 runs per game, putting them 12th in the league. Seattle has hit 151 home runs, ranking them 12th in the MLB. Their overall batting average is .238, while hitting .237 on the road and .231 at home.

Seattle Mariners Top Bats

 

Seattle Mariners Top Hitters: Last Five Games

 

The Astros are making their mark in the power department with a total of 159 home runs (9th). They are currently averaging 4.9 runs per game overall, with a collective batting average of .251. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .418 compared to .396 at home.

Houston Astros Top Hitters vs. Righties

 

Houston Astros Top Hitters: Last Five Games

 

Free MLB Pick

Unlike my previous game pick MIL at Tex Total Pick both of the forecasted starters don’t have good back numbers against today’s opponent’s lineup. Logan Gilbert has had difficulties with Jose Altuve (.381) and Alvarez (.300) Bregman (.318). Framber Valdez’ stats against today’s opponent’s roster are excellent holding them to a .182 batting average. Valdez is also excellent at home with a sparkling 2.44 ERA and has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven home starts. Most of the game in this series in ’23 have been low scoring, but only one of the eight games were decided by fewer than two runs, and that’s what I’m banking on tonight. Take the Astros -1.5 +140. ‘