St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Picks
St. Louis Cardinals (4-2) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4-4)
When: 7:10 p.m., Saturday, April 16
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Moneyline: STL -105/MIL -115
Runline: Cardinals +1.5/Brewers -1.5
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Starting Pitchers: Steven Matz (0-1, 21.00 ERA, 3.33 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (0-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.91 WHIP)
Put the Ball in Play
One of the reasons that the Cardinals have been so effective at the start of the season is that no team has been better at putting the ball in play. St. Louis has just 38 strikeouts to its name to start the season, the lowest in the majors. In the era of three outcomes at the plate, a team that puts the ball in play as often as the Cardinals do gives itself a chance to come up with some strong offensive numbers.
So far, that part of the equation has worked quite well. The Cardinals rank third in the majors in batting average at .271, and they’re third in the majors in home runs with 11 despite ranking dead last in at-bats. In this day and age, when everyone is trying to hit the ball a mile, St. Louis is succeeding simply by putting the ball in play and hitting for both average and for power. So far, the equation is working well for the Cardinals.
Risk and Reward
The exact opposite situation exists on the mound for Milwaukee, where the Brewers have pushed toward one extreme with recording strikeouts while pushing toward another with walks. Milwaukee ranks second in the majors in strikeouts recorded (fanning 71 so far this season) but also ranks second in the majors in walks with 38. That aggression can sometimes work out for the right pitching staff, but so far, it hasn’t for the Brewers, even as talented as their pitchers are.
Milwaukee’s in better shape than the likes of Washington or Cincinnati, but giving out that many free passes has come with its problems: Milwaukee has a 4.57 ERA to this point in the season. Even having three top starters can’t overcome the risk that comes with being all around the zone, especially against a team that doesn’t get itself out all that often. The Brewers will eventually get things figured out, but until they do, they will be a team that plays toward the extremes.
The success that the Cardinals have had at the plate makes sense, but what hasn’t made sense is their lack of ability to carry over success from game to game. Part of that could be because they have not played a regular schedule by any stretch of the imagination, getting two games rained out with Kansas City and having three off-days on the schedule already. In fact, this will mark the first time in this young season that the Cardinals have played three consecutive games, which could be the start of St. Louis putting a run together. The Cards do come off a big win, so if they’re going to get momentum going, this is likely to be the time when it happens.
<li>The Cardinals are 10-2 in their past 12 games as an underdog.</li>
<li>The Cardinals are 4-1 in their past five Saturday games.</li>
<li>The Brewers are 5-11 in their past 16 games overall.</li>
<li>The Brewers are 5-2 in their past seven home games.</li>
<li>The over is 4-1-1 in the Cardinals’ past six games overall.</li>
<li>The over is 15-5 in the Cardinals’ past 20 games during Game 3 of a series.</li>
<li>The under is 3-1-1 in the Brewers’ past five games overall.</li>
<li>The under is 5-2 in the Brewers’ past seven games as a home favorite.</li>
<li>The Cardinals are 7-2 in the past nine meetings.</li>
<li>The Cardinals are 5-1 in the past six matchups in Milwaukee.</li>
With temperatures in the mid to low 40s, this game’s going to be played under the roof of the Brewers’ stadium.
St. Louis’ bats exploded on Friday, and now that the Cardinals have gotten deeper into the Milwaukee rotation, the Cardinals have an advantage for the remaining games of this series. The lack of consistency is a worry for the Cardinals, but with how inconsistent the schedule has been, there’s a good reason for it. They’re finally in a flow now, and Milwaukee is still incredibly inconsistent with finding the strike zone. Given that the Cardinals aren’t the kind of team that’s going to get themselves out very often, I think they’ve got a good shot to keep the momentum going here. Give me St. Louis. Bet this weekends MLB picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit up to $500 at Betnow Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICTEM on registration page!)
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