Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers
Thursday, August 13, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Levi’s Stadium
This is the nightcap of the Thursday preseason slate and it might be the best handicapping spot of the night.
The Titans are on the road at 2.5-point favorites with a total of 39.5. If you look at the entire six-game Thursday preseason board, this is the only game with a road favorite. That’s not an accident. The books know something about how Robert Saleh treats preseason football, and they’re not shy about telegraphing it.
Let’s start there.
Robert Saleh is making his Titans debut after four years as the head coach of the New York Jets and one year as the defensive coordinator of these very 49ers. His preseason resume is elite. He’s gone 10-2-1 straight up in preseason games as a head coach and 10-3 against the spread. That’s a 77% cover rate in exhibition football, which is nearly unheard of. Saleh treats August like it matters. He plays his guys, he calls his game, and he expects to win.
On the other sideline is Kyle Shanahan, one of the most notoriously conservative preseason coaches in the league. Shanahan has treated the preseason as pure evaluation for years now. Brock Purdy is expected to see maybe one series before hitting the bench. Christian McCaffrey has been “just managing” some tightness and is unlikely to play much if at all. George Kittle is still working his way back from an Achilles issue. Trent Williams and the rest of the starting offensive line will get a courtesy series if they play at all.
That leaves us with a matchup where San Francisco is running out backups for the majority of the game while Tennessee is going to be more aggressive with playing time, especially in the second half when Saleh has his backup quarterbacks to sort through.
Which brings me to the total.
Here’s the trend that jumps off the page: the Tennessee Titans are 7-0 to the Over in their last seven preseason road games. Seven for seven. A perfect record. That’s the kind of trend that makes you sit up in your chair when it lines up with a game like this one, where Saleh’s coaching history and QB room both point in the same direction.
Speaking of the QB room, this is where Tennessee has a real edge on Thursday. Cam Ward is the starter and will play his short series before handing it off. But then Saleh has Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis, and Hendon Hooker to work through. Trubisky and Levis both have legitimate NFL starting experience. That’s rare depth for a preseason opener, and it means Tennessee’s offense isn’t going to fall off a cliff in the second half the way most preseason teams do. San Francisco, meanwhile, is running Mac Jones behind Purdy and then whoever’s competing for the third-string spot. There’s going to be a talent gap at quarterback for most of this game, and it’s tilted in Tennessee’s favor.
Saleh’s preseason totals record with the Jets was 8-5 to the Over. That’s 62%, right in line with what I want to see when I’m buying a preseason Over.
Combine a 7-0 O/U trend on the Titans in preseason road games, a coach with a 62% Over history, a superior backup quarterback situation, and a 49ers head coach who’s going to run vanilla plays for most of the second half, and you have a spot where scoring should flow.
I looked at the side too. Titans -2.5 with Saleh at 10-3 ATS in preseason is a legitimate play. If you want to double up on the Titans, taking both the side and the total isn’t crazy. But if I’m picking one, I want the total. Preseason spreads flip on one blocked punt, and the Over has more paths to cash.
The Pick: Titans/49ers Over 39.5
