Today’s MLB Pick: Cardinals vs. Reds 7/23/22

by | Last updated Jul 23, 2022 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds
Date: Saturday, July 23rd, 06:40 ET
Location: Great American Ball Park
TV: Bally Sports Midwest
Money Line: Cardinals -145 / Reds +122
Total Line: 10.0
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St. Louis: Steven Matz (3-3, 6.03)
Cincinnati: Mike Minor (1-6, 6.21)

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Edmundo Sosa SS
Brendan Donovan 3B
Albert Pujols 1B
Tyler O’Neill LF
Tommy Edman SS
Nolan Arenado 3B
Andrew Knizner C
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Dylan Carlson CF
Steven Matz P

Reds Projected Lineup

Donovan Solano 3B
Nick Senzel CF
Tyler Stephenson C
Kyle Farmer SS
Stuart Fairchild LF
Brandon Drury 1B
Tommy Pham LF
Joey Votto 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Mike Minor P


St. Louis Cardinals: 50-44-0 SU / OU 45-46-4 / Run Line W/L 51-44-0
Cincinnati Reds: 34-57-0 SU / OU 51-40-1 / Run Line W/L 43-49-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, July 23rd at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places St. Louis as the favorite (-145), with an OU line set at 10.0.

Recent Form

The Cardinals come into this matchup having suffered a 4-run loss to the Reds (9-5). St. Louis’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 7 hits, leading to 9 runs. On offense, the Cardinals 10 hits and 5 runs ended up not being enough to pull out the win. Cardinals suffered the loss, despite being favored at -145.0. Through 53 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 66.0%. This game went over the posted over-under line of 10.0 runs. Even with this game going over the total, St. Louis still has an over-under record of just 45-46-4.

The Cardinals will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. However, they have still put together a positive run differential of +3 (last 5). Despite their below .500 record, in St. Louis’s last 5 games, they are averaging just 5.8. Their season-long average currently sits at 4.59 (10th. So far, St. Louis has won over half of their 29 series played, going 13-9-7.

In their last game, the Cincinnati Reds picked up a 4 run win over the Cardinals by a score of 9-5. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Reds staff allowed 10 hits. Offensively, they finished with 9 runs on 7 hits. This was a good win for the Reds, as they were underdogs at 125.0 on the moneyline. In their 70 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 39.0%. The Reds and Cardinals went over the run total line set at 10.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 51-40-1.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -8 over their last 5 games. Their recent record comes while the offense has picked up its play, averaging 5.6 runs over their last 5 game, compared to their overall figure of 4.34. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 8-16-6.


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Pitching Matchup

St. Louis will roll with Steven Matz (3-3) as their starter. To date, Matz has an ERA of 6.03 while lasting an average of 4.12 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.284. Opponents are hitting for power against Matz, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.94. This season, he has struck out 27.0 of the batters he has faced. This has led to a per-game average of 4.89. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.93 walks per contest.

Mike Minor gets the start for the Reds, with an overall record of 1-6. To date, Minor has an ERA of 6.21 while lasting an average of 5.25 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.278. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Minor. This year, he is allowing 2.57 HRs per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Minor is averaging just 4.75 K’s per game. So far, he has struck out 20.0% of the batters he has faced. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.21 walks per contest.

St. Louis vs Cincinnati History

For the season, the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds will be playing their 10th game of the season. St. Louis has the lead in the series at 6-3. Through 9 games, the series’ over-under record is 5-4, with the average run total sitting at 9.53 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.33 runs. Cincinnati won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 10 wins to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 11-7, with the average run total being 9.53 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 5 games on the road
  • St. Louis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s National League matchup between St. Louis and Cincinnati, the Cardinals are the favorite to bounce back from yesterday’s loss to the Reds. I recommend taking St. Louis on the moneyline, as Cincinnati has won just one time with Mike Minor on the mound. Look for the Cardinals bats to come alive vs the Reds left-hander.

Free MLB Pick: Cardinals Moneyline

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