Today’s MLB Picks: San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

by | Last updated Apr 16, 2024 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Tuesday, April 16th, 7:40 ET
Location: American Family Field
Money Line: Padres -125/Brewers +105
Total Line: 8.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Padres on Tuesday, April 16th at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
SD -125 -1.5 O 8.5 (-111)
MIL +105 +1.5 U 8.5 (-110)

At 7:40 PM from American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have an NL matchup between the Padres and Brewers. Heading into Tuesday’s game, the Padres are 10-9 compared to the Brewers at 10-5. San Diego is the favorite on the money line at -125.

The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup features Dylan Cease for the Padres and Wade Miley for the Brewers. You can catch this one on TV on BSWI.

Padres vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Player Batting Order Position
Xander Bogaerts 1 2B
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2 RF
Jake Cronenworth 3 1B
Manny Machado 4 DH
Ha-Seong Kim 5 SS
Jurickson Profar 6 LF
Luis Campusano 7 C
Eguy Rosario 8 3B
José Azocar 9 CF
Dylan Cease SP

Player Batting Order Position
Oliver Dunn 1 3B
William Contreras 2 C
Christian Yelich 3 LF
Willy Adames 4 SS
Jake Bauers 5 1B
Rhys Hoskins 6 DH
Sal Frelick 7 CF
Brice Turang 8 2B
Jackson Chourio 9 RF
Wade Miley SP

Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Diego Padres: 10-9 SU / OU 10-8 / Runline 10-9
Milwaukee Brewers: 10-5 SU / OU 11-4 / Runline 8-7

San Diego cruised to a 7-3 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 5th inning, scoring six of their seven runs. As for the Brewers, they scored their only three runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Padres were the slight underdogs at -104.

Joe Musgrove got the win for the Padres, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with just four strikeouts but induced seven ground balls. Robert Suarez got the save.

Milwaukee’s starter, Joe Ross, had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work. He took the loss in the game.

Padres Records & Recent Play

After taking their series opener vs the Brewers, the Padres are now 10-9, good for 2nd place in the NL West. Currently, they trail the Dodgers by just one game. The Padres head into today’s game on a two-game winning streak, closing out their series with the Dodgers with a win.

On the road, the Padres are above .500 at 5-3 and just below .500 at home with a 5-6 record. San Diego has won two straight games as the road team and is 5-4 as the underdog this season compared to 5-5 as the favorite.

When the Padres are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 7-1 so far. Their average run margin in all games is +0.5 runs, but they have been even better on the road, with an average scoring margin of +1.4 runs per game. They have covered the run line in their last two road games and are 7-2 against the run line as the underdog.

The San Diego Padres have gone over the total in two straight games, and their games have averaged 10 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 10-8 on the year, and today’s over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. So far this season, 57.9% of their games have had lower over/under lines than today’s line of 8.5 runs.

Brewers Records & Recent Play

Milwaukee will be looking to pick up a win today, as they are currently on a two-game losing streak. In the NL Central, they are in 2nd place, tied with the Pirates. So far, they have a series record of 4-0-1.

At home, the Brewers are just above .500 at 3-3, but they have been great on the road at 7-2. When favored, their record is 4-3 this season, and as the underdog, they are 6-2.

When the Brewers win, they win big. Their average run margin in victories is 4.1, and they are 8-7 against the run line this season. However, they are just 1-5 against the run line at home, where their average run margin is exactly 0.0. On the road, they are 7-2 against the run line with an average scoring margin of 3.0 runs per game.

The Milwaukee Brewers have gone over the total in eight straight games and have an over/under record of 11-4 this season. The O/U line for today’s game against the San Diego Padres is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than their average line of 8 runs per game. The combined run average in their games this season is 10.7 runs per game.

Pitching Matchup

Dylan Cease and the Padres are on the road to take on the Brewers. Cease has been solid through his first two starts, picking up a win in his last outing against the Cubs. He has gone 6 innings in both of his starts and has 14 strikeouts to just 4 walks on the year.

Wade Miley will be making his second start of the season for the Brewers, and he will be taking on the Padres at home. In his first start of the season, Miley went 4 innings and allowed 1 earned run on 1 hit. He finished with 2 strikeouts and 2 walks and did not allow a home run.

Padres vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

For the Padres, we have Xander Bogaerts projected to have the most hits on the team, and his hits projection is 19th best in the league today. Manny Machado is our top projected home run hitter for the Padres, and his home run projection is 11th best in the league. Fernando Tatis Jr. is 2nd on the team in terms of home run projections, and his home run projection is 12th best in the league today.

Our player prop model is giving Rhys Hoskins the best chance to hit a home run for the Brewers today, as his home run projection is 9th best in the league. Christian Yelich has the 12th best home run projection in the league, and Willy Adames is 11th. William Contreras has the best hits projection on the team, which is 22nd best in the league today.

Free Padres vs. Brewers MLB Pick

Our prediction for today’s Padres vs. Brewers game is to take the Brewers on the money line at +105. We have the Brewers winning this one and with some positive odds, we see this as a great value pick.

Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Dylan Cease finishing with more strikeouts than Wade Miley, but we have Miley picking up the win. Our projections have Miley going 6-7 innings and finishing with four strikeouts.

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