Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Pick 7/21/19

by | Jul 21, 2019 | mlb

Washington Nationals (51-45) vs. Atlanta Braves (59-40), 7/21/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, July 21
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Listed Pitchers: Joe Ross (0-1, 11.05 ERA, 2.11 WHIP) vs. Kevin Gausman (2-5, 6.21, 1.51)
TV: ESPN, FS South

Moneyline: Braves -135/Nationals +125 (Bookmaker)
Over/Under: 11.5

After taking two of the first three games of this four-game series Washington shoots for more Sunday night down in Georgia. The Nationals are one of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month or so, making up good ground in the NL East race. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s sporotsbooks opened the betting odds on Atlanta and Gausman at around -135 over Washington and Ross, with an over/under of 11 runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 11.5. Speaking of betting, if you need an additional betting site to shop lines then make you check out our section on the top sportsbooks.

Nationals vs. Braves Set-Up

Washington took the opener of this series Thursday night 13-4; Atlanta then won Friday’s game 4-3; the Nationals then took Saturday’s game 5-3.

Washington won Thursday as a -145 favorite on the MLB betting line with Stephen Strasburg. The Braves then won Friday as +105 home dogs. And the Nats won Saturday as +150 dogs against Mike Soroka.

With Saturday’s victory, Washington is 15-5 over its last 20 games.

With Saturday’s loss, Atlanta is just 1-4 over its last five games.

At 59-41 overall the Braves lead the NL East by 5.5 games over the 52-45 Nationals. Atlanta also leads the Cubs by four games in the battle for the No. 2 spot in the National League playoff standings.

Washington, meanwhile, also leads the National League wild-card race by a game and a half over second-place Milwaukee.

The Nationals lead the season series with the Braves five games to three.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Gausman is being recalled after a rehab stint in the Minors to make his first start for the Big Club since June 10. He began this season by going 4/13 on quality starts for Atlanta, then went on the DL with a sore foot. He then looked good in three rehab appearances down in the Minors.

On the season the Braves are 7-6 with Gausman.

In two starts against Washington last year Gausman allowed six runs – five earned – over 11 2/3 innings. But in his only start against the Nats this season, back in May, he got clobbered for eight runs while recording just three outs in a 14-4 Braves defeat.

Ross is being recalled from the Minors to make his first start with the Big Club this season. He’s already made 17 appearances in relief for the Nationals this year, most recently giving up four runs in one inning of work against this Atlanta outfit back on June 22. He’s since then posted a 4.28 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP through 40 innings down at Triple-A Fresno.

With Washington this year Ross has allowed 18 ER and 22 hits through 14 2/3 innings.

This start will be Ross’ first against Atlanta since 2017, and that’s already kind of a long time ago when it comes to this Braves lineup.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Washington is batting .247/.321/.419 against right-handed pitching this season.

Atlanta is batting .260/.336/.453 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen owns a 5.86 ERA this season and a 1.53 WHIP while allowing a .796 OPS. Those numbers “help” this unit rank among the bottom five bullpens in baseball this season, although it’s been better as of late.

The Braves pen owns a 3.94 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .746 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 47-44 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs are 50-45 in Braves games this season.
  • Overs are 27-20 in games played at SunTrust Park this season.
  • Overs are 8-3 when Gausman starts this season.
  • Unders are 4-3 in Nats-Braves games this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll call this pitching match-up a wash, but we give Atlanta the edge in both the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. So we’re betting the Braves here for our free MLB pick for Sunday.

Take the Braves -135

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