Yankees vs. Astros Game 2 Betting Predictions

by | Oct 20, 2022 | mlb

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

Date: Wednesday October 19th, 07:37 ET

Location: Minute Maid Park

TV: TBS

Money Line: Yankees +126 / Astros -150 (Bet using dimelines! You’ll be so glad you switched!)

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

New York: Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18)
Houston: Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.77)

Yankees Projected Lineup

Harrison Bader CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Gleyber Torres 2B
Aaron Judge RF
Oswaldo Cabrera LF
Josh Donaldson 3B
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Giancarlo Stanton LF
Luis Severino P

Astros Projected Lineup

Trey Mancini 1B
Chas McCormick LF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Framber Valdez P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Yankees: 99-63-0 SU / OU 78-85-5 / Run Line W/L 75-93-0
Houston Astros: 106-56-0 SU / OU 61-96-9 / Run Line W/L 88-78-0

The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees on Wednesday October 19th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:37 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In New York’s last game, they fell to Houston by a score of 4-2. On their way to giving up 4 runs, the Yankees staff allowed 7 hits. With their 5 hits, the Yankees could only muster 2 runs. The loss came as New York was the betting underdog, getting 164.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Yankees and Houston fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.0 runs. So far, New York has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 78-85-5.

Over the Yankees’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. Despite their below .500 record (last 5), in this stretch, the team still has a positive run differential at +1. A key reason for New York’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.93. So far, New York has won over half of their 55 series played, going 31-17-7.

In their last game, Houston took down the Yankees by a score of 4-2. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 5 hits. With their 7 hits, the Astros could only muster 4 runs. In the game, Houston was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -178.0. So far, the team has won 69.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Astros and Yankees combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Now, Houston had an over-under record of 61-96-9.

Over their last 5 games, the Astros have not lost a game, going 5-0. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +7. Houston is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.54. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 36-13-6.

Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send Luis Severino to the mound with an overall record of 7-3. In his previous outings, Severino has lasted an average of 5.37 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.18. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just .196. Home runs have been a concern for Severino as he is allowing 1.24 per 9 innings. On the season, Luis Severino has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28%. This includes a per game average of 5.89 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.65 walks per outing.

Houston will roll with Framber Valdez (17-6) as their starter. Currently, Valdez has a strong ERA of just 2.77 while pitching an average of 6.49 innings per outing. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.22 against the right-hander. Home runs have not been an issue for Valdez, as he is giving up just 0.49 per 9. Overall, Framber Valdez has struck out 23.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 6.26 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.0 walks per outing.

New York vs Houston History

For the season, the New York Yankees and Houston Astros will be playing their 9th game of the season. Houston holds the edge in the series at 6-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-5. The average run total in these games is 8.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 1.88 runs.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees’s last 8 games
  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

New York Yankees at Houston Astros Prediction

Neither pitcher has shown us anything recently that suggests they’ll shut their opponent down. This includes past performances vs. opponent and recent form. I wouldn’t be betting big money on this game because it could go either way. With that being said, my lean is to the Yankees and the OVER. Good luck with whatever you do!

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