Yankees vs. Astros (Gm 1) Predictions 7/21/22

by | Jul 21, 2022 | mlb

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

Date: Thurday, July 21st, 01:10 ET

Location: Minute Maid Park

TV: ATT SportsNet-SW

Money Line: Yankees 105 / Astros -125 (Bovada - 50% bonus, rebates on ALL your bets and the best live wagering platform on the planet! It’s where we play!)

Total Line: OFF

STARTING PITCHING

New York: Jameson Taillon (10-2, 3.86)
Houston: Cristian Javier (6-5, 3.22)

Yankees Projected Lineup

Aaron Hicks LF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Josh Donaldson 3B
Gleyber Torres 2B
Giancarlo Stanton RF
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
DJ LeMahieu 1B
Aaron Judge CF
Jameson Taillon P

Astros Projected Lineup

Jake Meyers CF
Aledmys Díaz LF
Kyle Tucker RF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Jeremy Peña SS
Cristian Javier P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

New York Yankees: 64-28-0 SU / OU 45-45-2 / Run Line W/L 45-47-0
Houston Astros: 59-32-0 SU / OU 32-56-3 / Run Line W/L 47-44-0

The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees on Thursday, July 21st at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-125), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

The New York Yankees are coming off an 11 run win over the Red Sox by a score of 13-2. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 6 hits. The Yankees lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 14 hits, leading to 13 runs. Heading into their last game, New York was the betting favorite at -178.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 87 of their games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. With the over-under line set at 7.5 runs, the Yankees and Red Sox combined to go over this total. With this result, New York now has a .500 over-under record at 45-45-2.

The Yankees come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +23. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 8.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 5.40. So far, New York has won over half of their 30 series played, going 21-4-5.

The Astros are coming off a tight loss to the Athletics, dropping the game 4-3. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 4 runs on 8 hits. With their 8 hits, the Astros could only plate 3 runners. Houston dropped the game despite being favored at -280.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 75 games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. Combined, the Astros and Athletics’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Now, Houston had an over-under record of 32-56-3.

In their last 5 contests, the Astros have just 2 wins, going 2-3. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -5 over their last 5 games. If Houston is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.6 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.43. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 19-9-2.

Pitching Matchup

Texas will roll with Jon Gray (6-4) as their starter. To date, Gray has an ERA of 3.71 while lasting an average of 5.58 innings per appearance. Through 16 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.222. Gray is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 1.01 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Jon Gray has a strong strikeout percentage of 27.0%, including a per game average of 6.25. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.71 walks per outing.

The Miami Marlins will send Pablo López to the mound with an overall record of 6-4. Through 18 appearances, López has an ERA of just 2.94 while averaging 5.78 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.21 against the right-hander. Per 9 innings pitched, López is giving up 0.95 home runs. In terms of strikeouts, Pablo López has a strong K% of 24.0%, including a per game average of 5.61. Command has been a problem for López, as he is giving up 2.77 walks per outing.

Texas vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the Texas Rangers and Miami Marlins will be their first meeting of the season.

More Picks: Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins Predicted Moneyline Winner >>>

Betting Trends

  • Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Texas’s last 12 games when playing Miami
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami’s last 12 games when playing Texas

Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s Interleague matchup between Texas and Miami, the Marlins have the slight edge on the moneyline. Even though Pablo Lopez factored into just 1 decision, Miami has won 3 straight games with the right-hander on the mound. Over this stretch, he has given up just 4 earned runs. I see the Marlins picking up the win coming off the All-Star Break.

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