Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

by | Last updated Jul 1, 2022 | mlb

New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians
Date: Friday, July 1st, 07:10 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Money Line: Yankees -210 / Guardians +170 (Get the best lines >>>)
Total Line: 7.5


New York: Gerrit Cole (6-2, 2.99)
Cleveland: Aaron Civale (2-4, 7.2)

Yankees Projected Lineup

Aaron Hicks LF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Josh Donaldson 3B
Gleyber Torres 2B
Giancarlo Stanton RF
Jose Trevino C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
DJ LeMahieu 1B
Aaron Judge CF
Gerrit Cole P

Guardians Projected Lineup

Oscar Gonzalez RF
Luke Maile C
Franmil Reyes RF
Andrés Giménez 2B
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan CF
Amed Rosario SS
Aaron Civale P


New York Yankees: 56-21-0 SU / OU 34-41-2 / Run Line W/L 39-38-0
Cleveland Guardians: 39-34-0 SU / OU 35-33-5 / Run Line W/L 39-34-0

The Cleveland Guardians host the New York Yankees on Friday, July 1st at Progressive Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Astros (2-1), the Yankees will look to get back in the win column. Despite the loss, New York’s pitching staff gave up only 2 runs on 3 hits. On offense, the Yankees finished with 1 run on 5 hits. Yankees suffered the loss, despite being favored at -140.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 72 of their games, winning at a rate of 72.0%. Combined, the Yankees and Astros fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed New York’s over-under record further below .500 at 34-41-2.

The Yankees come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +9. New York’s offense heads into action averaging 4.6 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.99. So far, New York has won over half of their 25 series played, going 19-3-3.

Cleveland is coming off a 2 run win over the Twins (5-3). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Twins to 3 runs and 7 hits. At the plate, the Guardians scored 5 times on 3 hits. In the game, Cleveland was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -145.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 36 games, winning at a rate of 67.0%. With this result, the Guardians and Twins combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Cleveland still has an above .500 over-under record at (35-33-5).

In their last 5 games, the Guardians have put together a record of 3-2. Cleveland has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at -12. Cleveland has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 3.2 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.44. On the season, Cleveland has won more than half of their series, going 12-8-4.

Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send Gerrit Cole to the mound with an overall record of 6-2. In his previous outings, Cole has lasted an average of 5.81 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.99. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.198, while averaging 1.24 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Gerrit Cole has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 32.0%. This includes a per game average of 7.4 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Cole, as he is giving up 2.37 walks per outing.

Aaron Civale gets the start for the Guardians, with an overall record of 2-4. So far, Civale has put together an ERA of 7.2. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.44 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.307. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Civale, averaging 1.35 homers per 9 innings pitched. Civale is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 4.33 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 21.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.92 walks per contest.

New York vs Cleveland History

Today’s matchup between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will be their 4th meeting of the season. So far, New York is leading the season series, 3-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-1. The average run total in these games is 9.14 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.0 runs. Going back to last year, New York won the season series, 4 games to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-3. Last year, the Yankees and Guardians averaged 9.14 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 5.14 runs per contest.

More Picks: Get Dan’s analysis and free pick to bet for the CWS/SF 7/1/22 game >>>

Betting Trends

  • NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
  • NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland’s last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Heading into Friday’s American League matchup between New York and Philadelphia, the Yankees are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Look for the Guardians to struggle against Gerrit Cole, who has given up just 2 runs over his last 3 outings. In addition, I expect the Yankees bats to come alive against Aaron Civale and his WHIP of 1.60.

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